By Anjan Roy
Donald Trump, US president, is calling it quits. Badly bruised, Trump is claiming to have achieved his aim of a regime change in Iran. He is also claiming that Iran is insisting on an end to the war.
Having created a mess, Trump is seeing no bright path for an honourable exit. Hence, he is making tall claims of having achieved all goals, however distant they look in plain sight. Trump has put forward the argument that USA never needed the Strait of Hormuz route for securing its oil.
So, it is others who should now pick up elated courage and force opening the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone sees through that and Moscow has mocked Trump, saying that his military has failed to open up the vital sea lane, Hormuz Strait.
But a sudden American retreat would leave the entire world drawing the consequences. Leaving the war at this point would give all the advantages to Iran. The Strait Hormuz will remain closed, and at any rate under Iran’s control, which was earlier an open international sea way.
Iran might even continue with its toll on passing ships, that it has started doing now. That will be permanent loss. An open international sea lane cannot be operated as a toll road by the littoral country.
The supply of oil and gas would continue to be limited as the oil and gas facilities have been badly damaged by the missiles strikes. It will take a long time to repair the facilities and restore their production capacities. That might also mean the investments required for putting these back into order would raise prices for good.
This is the end result of a badly planned abrupt war, launched by a megalomaniac president who had th9ught he was all-powerful after a squeamish attack on a neighbouring country. Trump had mistakenly assumed Venezuela to be a model for the rest of the world.
On its part, Iran is equally vociferous that it will not cease fire and would continue to fight. Iran is also saying that its leaders are safe and sound and are very much in the saddle. As if to show its defiance, Iran started battering some of the West Asian countries, as well as, Israel the moment Trump finished his gadfly ramblings in the security of White House Oval Office.
If anything, it would be the worst outcome to leaving Iran with its games as it is at present. The whole of West Asia, that is, from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain and all the others would be at the mercy of Iran. They have been terrorised in course of the war, and an emboldened Iran would further bamboozle them.
The only side not claiming victory or end of war is Israel which had kept pounding Iranian capital Tehran and mounted its offensive against the Hezbollah in Lebanon. US suddenly washing its hands of the entire affair, would leave Israel vulnerable.
Israel’s reputation of being invincible has been badly shattered. It has not scored any clear victory on either Iran or over the Hezbollah outfit. IF anything, the latter would be more extravagant in its attitude.
Therefore, the conflicting narratives of the war take the world no further than where matters stood. If anything, it would be far worse.
This is a total logjam and dislocation of the global economy. Oil prices were rising still and countries across the world are adopting measures to control oil and gas supplies as well as their prices. The economic fall-out would be all the more severe on the less developed and poorer countries. African countries are complaining of the impact already.
But the worst damage has been to the United States. Its image as a responsible power has been dented. The whimsical ways the USA has behaved calls for a regime change there than anywhere else. What a shameful retreat for the acclaimed “most powerful military in the world”.
The severe blows that the Americans have sustained in the on-going war could not be understated. Only this week, two of America’s high prized surveillance aircraft, E3 sentry aircraft called AWACS have been destroyed beyond repair. It is not that such aircraft were aplenty and can be easily replaced.
American bases in West Asia have been battered beyond recognition. The question will arise if these would be rebuilt or the Americans might be asked to wind up. After all, this bases have not provided any defence cover to the countries which had harboured them. On the contrary, these bases have attracted attention and bombardment.
Given the downsides of a sudden withdrawal, it sometimes look like if Trump was using this as a ruse to bring laxity among the Iranians. He of curse promises to return in future if need be.
But everything around Trump is absurd drama. Nobody could be sure what he means. To ordinary people, it is a world verging on the lunatic. (IPA Service)
