By P. Sreekumaran
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders in Kerala are over the moon in the wake of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to pep up the party’s election campaign. Understandable. They think it will give a big boost to the party’s chances of winning a couple of seats in the state this time. But the reality on the ground, however, tell an entirely different tale.
There is no denying that the prime ministerial visit has energised the BJP campaign in Thrissur and Palakkad, the constituencies which the BJP thinks it will win this time. That is exactly the reason why Modi singled out these two constituencies for special attention. But the million-dollar question is: will the ‘tremendous enthusiasm’ – that is how the local BJP: leaders put it – will translate into votes?
The question requires a closer look at the situation on the ground. Let us take Palakkad first. No doubt, Palakkad is a BJP stronghold. In the last election, Metro strongman E. Sreedharan, who contested on the BJP ticket, lost by a narrow margin of over 3,800 votes. BJP leaders think there has been a sea-change in the political situation since then. What has brightened the party’s chances now, according to them, is the candidature of Sobha Surendran, a veteran of many a battle, and one of the few leaders who built the BJP in Palakkad from scratch. There is, however, a catch. The BJP unit in Palakkad is a house divided against itself. This is an open secret. This has been most pronounced whenever Sobha tried to contest the election. Will the party give her unstinted support this time? If it does – a prospect which is anything but bright – Sobha may romp home.
But what is the situation on the ground? The differences plaguing the BJP in Palakkad came to the fore right from the beginning. Senior leaders stayed away from her campaign, and refused to extend their cooperation. And it took persuasion from the top to make them extend grudging support to her election campaign. The unfortunate development has left a trail of bitterness. Can the party overcome these hurdles?
But there have been some developments which may help Sobha to romp home to some extent. The Congress has fielded a weak candidate – Malayalam film actor Ramesh Pisharody. He may be highly popular on the reel. But can he succeed in winning the election for the Congress? A relevant question. If some of his statements and remarks are anything to go by, the Congress will find the going tough. That is for sure. His uncharitable remarks against the pro-Palestine demonstrations and campaigns in the State can only gladden the BJP hearts. His stance is totally at variance with the official stand of the Congress. The prevalent perception is that Pisharody has been fielded due to the pressure mounted by the young Turks in the party led by Shafi Parambil, MP from the Vadakara Lok Sabha constituency.
That is proving to be a political blunder. The Congress leadership should have summoned the courage to ignore their pressure tactics, and fielded a strong candidate – like former KPCC president and senior leader K. Muralidharan. It did nothing of the kind. The result is: The BJP’s chances of making it to the Assembly from Palakkad has soared. And if the party does win, the Congress will have to take the blame. Political pundits say this is the real deal in Kerala politics – the understanding between the Congress and the BJP. They have done it many times in the past – in Vadakara and Beypore in 1991. They joined hands with the Jan Sangh, the predecessor of the BJP – to ensure the defeat of CPI(M) patriarch, EMS Namboodiripad himself in Pattambi. It is a different matter that EMS won despite the determined attempt by the Congress-Jan Sangh nexus. In fact, the Jan Sangh candidate withdrew his candidature to help the Congress. This is no speculation. This is history. Their talk of a CPI(M)-BJP deal in the State is nothing but fantastic nonsense. An allegation the people of Kerala will dismiss it with the contempt it deserves.
The Prime Minister undertook a road show in Thrissur in support of BJP candidate Padmaja Venugopal, daughter of late Congress leader and former Chief Minister K. Karunakaran. The BJP believes the Karunakaran connection will stand Padmaja in good stead in Thrissur. No way. In fact, the people have not forgotten Padmaja’s great betrayal of Congress which fielded her from the constituency in the last election. Nor will the Suresh Gopi factor help her. The reason is simple: Suresh Gopi, the lone BJP MP from Kerala, who won the Thrissur constituency for the party in the last LS poll, has lost his popularity due to his arrogant attitude and abrasive tongue. Suresh, it may be mentioned, won thanks to the massive transfer of Congress votes. That is un likely to happen in 2026. Also, the CPI has put up a prominent popular writer and cultural activist Alanagode Leelakrishnan, a highly popular figure in Thrissur.
Last but not the least is the negative narrative of the Prime Minister. The thrust of his criticism is corruption and Congress-CPI(M) deal. Both campaign planks are unlikely to create the impact the BJP thinks they will. If anything, the deal spiel could boomerang both on the BJP and the Congress. Also, there has been no big announcement from Modi, unlike the Bihar election where he announced a largesse for the women voters in blatant violation of the model code of conduct. And the people’s memory of the raw deal meted out to the Wayanad landslide victims and survivors is too fresh to be forgotten. (IPA Service)
