By Rabindra Nath Sinha
Party hopping is on in full swing among the BJP and the Congress ranks in Assam where Assembly elections are due between March-end and mid-April latest and for which the Election Commission of India is expected to announce the schedule in a matter of days. Keeping pace with the defection game is the announcement of incentives and direct benefit transfer by chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who heads the BJP-led NDA. Firming up of alliances, of which the most tricky exercise is seat sharing, is also in progress; but somewhat slowly. In this respect, the progress registered already by the Congress-led coalition, which though is still not fully stitched, appears to be better than that of the BJP-stewarded combine. One reason is the wait of both BJP and Congress to see the finality of the defection game after the full list of candidates have been released.
While on the subject of jumping the ship, Himanta is more diplomatic when he says BJP’s doors are always “for whosoever wants to join us without pre-conditions”, the Congress-led combine’s chief Gaurav Gogoi, who is the PCC chief, is forthright when he says that the party in Assam not only fights BJP and its allies “but also enemies within”. Obviously, Gaurav was referring to the defection of the immediate past PCC president Bhupen Borah and a number of his followers against whom disciplinary action has been taken recently. [The coalition head is the deputy LoP in Lok Sabha; he represents the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency].
As for DBT and incentives, two announcements by Himanta deserve mention. On March 8, Sunday, while participating in Jan Ashirvad Yatra he announced DBT of Rs 9,000 each to approximately 40 lakh families under the Orunodoi scheme in force since October 2, 2020. Orunodoi no doubt is an on-going scheme; but what makes it look like an attempt to woo women and poor families before the elections is that installments for four months – January to April – are being released at one go and the total amount of Rs 9,000 includes Bihu festival bonus [The date fixed for DBT, which entails an outgo of almost Rs 3,600 crore, is Tuesday, March 10].
The second decision is the approval of minimum daily wage of tea workers by Rs 30. The government’s March 7 gazette notification clarifies that the wage hike follows the recommendation of the Minimum Wages Advisory Board and is to take effect on April 1. Tea garden workers in Assam, often referred to as tea tribes, account for 18-20 per cent of the electorate. [It is another matter that garden owners have described hike as an additional burden when the going remains tough and workers’ outfits have described the increase as ‘lollipop from BJP’. They have reminded the saffron party of its promise of a minimum daily wage of Rs 351 ahead of the 2016 Assembly elections]. Earlier, about five weeks back, the ministry amended the Assam Fixation of Ceiling on Land Holding Act to grant legal land rights to plantation workers living in the labour lines of gardens. A modest beginning to distribute land pattas has since been made.
Be that as it may, the fact remains Himanta today is not Himanta before 2021 Assembly elections, when he politically was on a strong wicket. His hate speeches against ‘miya muslims’ since the end of January through the second week of February generated public outrage “on the part of a politician holding a constitutional post” [the hate speech issue is already in courts]. And now quietly, he has enlisted the support of three MLAs of Badruddin Ajmal’s All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) for ensuring the victory in the third seat for Rajya Sabha. On its own, BJP would have won two of the three seats for which there are vacancies in the Upper House. This too has not gone well with sections of the electorate. “Miya-muslim bashing and getting support of an outfit that has a strong communal identity cannot go together”, observe political leaders. From the chief minister’s side the argument is by enlising Ajmal’s support he has tried to undo the damage that his ‘miya-muslim’ bashing did. Time alone will show whether he is being too clever by half.
The other factors working against him even if anti-incumbency is not given weightage, are administrative shortcomings and his highhandedness in dealing with the Opposition, his regular targeting of Gaurav [who is acknowledged by the non-BJP opposition parties as a politician with a clean image and who has made a mark in Lok Sabha debates as deputy LoP], land deals involving his family members and his attempts to allot tribal land to a particular Gujarat-based industrial house. The mystery surrounding the death of music icon Zubin Garg in September last is yet to be decoded. His real problem on this issue, knowledgeable quarters told IPA, will arise if some of the arrested persons are set free under the legal process.
According to several informed political and civil society observers, who include social scientist Dr Bhupen Sarmah, who is a former director of Guwahati-based OKD Institute of Social Change and Development, the 2026 elections throwing surprises of import cannot be ruled out. There is no denying Himanta will lead the coalition with a dented image. It remains to be seen as to what extent campaigning by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah works as a mitigating factor. They do concede BJP has the money power but money, they add, does not always help.
Funding is certainly a worrying factor for the Congress. But, the grand old party, in a break with the past, is moving rather swiftly in finalizing candidates. Already, it has stitched an alliance with three regional parties. But its hitches with Akhil Gogoi’s Raijor Dal are yet to be sorted out. It is certain that the Congress top brass is banking on Gaurav’s clean image and proven performance in Lok Sabha. They have already decided to field him from the Jorhat Assembly seat in his Lok Sabha constituency. Priyanka Gandhi as chairperson of the screening committee is laying stress on candidates with commitment to the party. Very recently the high command has involved Karnataka’s deputy chief minister D K Shivkumar with Assam elections, keeping in view his organisational skills. At this point in time it looks like Gaurav will be the defacto CM face’ of the Congress-led coalition. (IPA Service)
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