By Jag Mohan Thaken
CHANDIGARH: Punjab political parties have started to gird up their loins for the forthcoming 2027 assembly elections. The present ruling party Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is anxious about retaining the throne, whereas the main opposition party congress is trying hard to regain its lost power. Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is hoping to revive its roots in the rural constituencies and the BJP counts its base on urban and Hindu votes, but the ground reality smells that the urban party won’t get even a penny of power, if it fights the election alone.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has now come to this sobering realisation: establishing an independent foothold in Punjab capable of dislodging the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is no longer merely difficult—it is impossible. An equally grim concern looms larger: even if AAP were to be defeated, the principal beneficiary would be the Congress, leaving the BJP exactly where it started—marginalised and irrelevant.
Having exhausted every conceivable strategy to expand its influence, the BJP pinned its hopes on high-profile defections, enticing former Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh and ex-Congress state president Sunil Jakhar to serve as the nucleus of a self-sustaining organisation free from alliance crutches. The gamble failed spectacularly. These ageing, battle-worn veterans—long past their political prime—proved rootless and incapable of galvanising support.
Now, in a damning admission, Captain Amarinder himself has conceded the bitter truth: without a formidable local ally, the BJP has no realistic prospect of ever winning the electoral contest in Punjab. Will BJP make a reallliance with its old partner SAD?.
Speaking with a media house, Captain clearly stated that the BJP would not be able to win the coming 2027 Assembly elections on its own and would need to resuscitate its partnership with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) if it aimed to return to power.
Indian Express in its 1st December Print edition, quotes Captain that the party “doesn’t understand the state” well enough to build a strong organisational base independently. Captain stated that only an alliance with the SAD could provide the necessary cadre and grassroots network, a process that he said would otherwise require “two to three elections” for the BJP to develop on its own. There is no other way to form government in Punjab after 2027 polls without having an alliance with Siromani Akali Dal, Amarinder Singh said.
Punjab Congress president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, on December 01, said that he agreed with the former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh that the BJP on its own did not have any future in Punjab. The PCC president remarked, “the BJP can never form a government in Punjab, with Akalis or without Akalis”.
“It does not have any future at all, with or without allies as the party has completely alienated and antagonised Punjabis with its anti-Punjab policies”, he added.
Raja Warring said, both the parties have already been wiped and washed out from Punjab and they had no hope or scope of revival or redemption. “But one thing I must appreciate and agree with Capt. Sahab is that he has become wiser in hindsight and has shown the mirror to his own party”, he noted, while adding, “even if the Akalis and the BJP align together they will not make any difference as zero plus zero is always a zero”.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has also reacted sharply on Captain’s theory of BJP’s alliance with SAD and launched a scathing attack on former Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh and the Badal family, holding them behind the two-decade-long conspiracy to plunder the state’s resources.
Addressing a press conference at party’s head office, on December 1, Punjab Finance Minister and Senior AAP leader, Advocate Harpal Singh Cheema, said that the leaders rejected by the people of Punjab, including two-time former Congress CM Captain Amarinder Singh, his relative Simranjeet Singh Mann, and former Deputy CM Sukhbir Singh Badal, are once again dreaming of returning to power. Cheema asserted that Punjab will no longer tolerate the politics of loot dominated by these two families.
Commenting over the statement of AAP leader Cheema, Former Chairman National Commission for Scheduled Castes and Former State President BJP Punjab, Vijay Sampla, while addressing a press conference, said – “BJP is fully prepared to contest all 117 assembly seats on its own. From the 2022 Assembly elections to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP has contested elections solo in Punjab and will also be contesting the upcoming Zila Parishad and Panchayat Samiti elections and the 2027 elections on its own strength.”
But doesn’t the statement of Vijay Sampla undermine the theory of BJP’s once strong hold leader Captain Amarinder Singh? Has Captain lost his weight up to such an extent in the party that his views and suggestions are turned down by even a second liner in the party? Doesn’t Vijay Sampla know that giving tickets to party’s candidates on all seats is not winning all the seats? Doesn’t he remember the results of BJP in the 2022 assembly elections and 2024 Lok Sabha elections?
It is pertinent to mention here that SAD had alienated from BJP during 13-month long farmers’ agitation in 2020-21. Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) MP and Food Processing Minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal resigned from the Union Cabinet in protest of the anti-farmer acts. Her party was one of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) oldest allies, and Ms. Badal was its sole representative in the Modi government.
Tweeting from her verified account, Ms. Badal said she had resigned from the Cabinet “in protest against anti-farmer ordinances and legislation. Proud to stand with farmers as their daughter and sister”.
Led primarily by farmers from Punjab and Haryana, the protest began in November 2020 and is considered one of the largest challenges to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. The key demands were the repeal of the three agricultural acts and the guarantee of a legal minimum support price (MSP) for crops. The government repealed the laws in November 2021, though the protest continued until December 2021 to secure other commitments.
How did BJP and SAD fare in 2022 assembly elections and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when they fought separately?
In 2022 assembly elections for all the 113 seats AAP won 92 seats getting 42 % votes, Congress got 18 seats with 23% vote share, SAD got only 3 seats and a vote share of 18.38% and the BJP, despite a ruling party status in the centre, had to satisfy with only 2 seats and a 6.6% vote share. If BJP and SAD had aligned in this election, they jointly would have got many more seats as their joint vote share was 35% (18.38 + 6.60), 12% more than congress’ share.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the results of all the 13 seats in Punjab were also alarming for BJP and SAD, which they fought separately.
Congress got 7 seats out of 13 seats with a vote share of 26.39%, AAP, despite a ruling party in the state, could win 3 seats with vote share of 26%, Shiromani Akali Dal had to satisfy on only one seat getting 13.42% vote share and BJP lost the ground completely (won zero seat), even it got 18.56 vote share. The others got 2 seats. If we consider the total vote share of both SAD and BJP, the alliance got 32% (13.42 + 18.56), which is the highest. The joint fight of SAD and BJP could have changed the position.
So, the data of vote share in both the elections of 2022 and 2024 shows that if BJP and SAD had remained the partner, as earlier, they wouldn’t have to see the shameful defeat and might have got the ruling command. Perhaps this analysis has forced Captain Amarinder Singh to think about the need for alliance between the two parties.
But here arises the question, whether the same data will repeat itself in 2027 assembly elections? Will BJP use SAD Manure to spread its roots in Punjab and succeed in getting the bumper crop?
As the farmers of the Punjab still do not seem happy with the BJP due to not fulfilling their various demands of guaranteed MSP and others by the central government, so the farmers will vote for the alliance, which has BJP as the partner, does not reflect a positive note.
Angrej Singh Bhadour, a farmer leader from Punjab, interacting with this author, says, “My personal opinion is that if the Shiromani Akali Dal and the BJP come together, the general public will not vote for them and it is difficult for them to succeed. Let alone the farmer organizations, the general public will not accept this alliance.
But this will have one advantage. It will become clear to the people that all the looters, no matter which political party they belong to, are all one in looting the people.” (IPA Service)
