By Rabindra Nath Sinha
As of Monday, there is more than usual curiosity in political circles about two issues as far as the Bihar Assembly election is concerned. The two-phase election concludes on Tuesday, November 11.. The exercise is to cover 122 seats for the 243-member House. Therefore, the immediate reason for the curiosity is whether the turnout on November 11, Tuesday, for the second and concluding phase will also be quite high, as recorded for the phase I held on November 6, Thursday when polling took place for 121 constituencies.
The second reason for the curiosity is whether the Seemanchal region, home to a high percentage of muslim electorate and where Hyderabad-based prominent muslim leader Assauddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (Majlis) is in the fray, repeating the experiment he had seriously started in 2020. Because of Owaisi’s and his party’s close links with Hyderabad, sections of the voters in the Seemanchal area also refer to it as ‘the Hyderabadi’ party.
The interpretation for a visibly high voter turnout in a state known for unremarkable turnout usually is : it is anti-incumbency or it reflects a desire for change and a verdict on which interpretation is rational always remains difficult before the results are declared. In fact, then analyses and data break-up provide scope for acceptable assessments. This will be the case in Bihar too; but political observers IPA interacted with are inclined to believe that the turnout for phase II on Tuesday may match that on November 6 ; or even be better on that
The keenness shown by larger sections of the electorate on November 6, in reality, may encourage those sections, who otherwise may not have shown interest, to exercise their right to franchise, observers said clarifying their reading of the situation. If that happens, it will also mean, as seen in phase I, impressive women voter turnout with implications for the outcome. The political observers mentioned the cash transfer of Rs 10,000 to all eligible women just a few days before the battle gathered momentum.
The final turnout in phase I was 65.08 per cent which was 7.79 per cent up on the 2020 figure ; by any yardstick an impressive increase. Two districts – Muzaffarpur and Samastipur – saw 71 plus per cent turnout. In certain other districts – Madhepura, Saharsa, Vaishali and Khagaria — the polling percentage ranged between 67.9 and 69.59. Bihar’s 3.75 crore voters comprise 1.98 crore men and 1.76 crore women. There is unanimity in the media, print and visual, that women had come out in large numbers to cast their votes.
The Seemanchal districts, which have 24 Assembly constituencies [10 per cent of total 243] and where voting is to take place on November 11 are Purnia, Katihar, Kishanganj and Araria – all of them economically backward districts, also known for large-scale outbound migration. This region is estimated to be home to 28 per cent of Bihar’s last recorded 2.31 crore muslim population. As per 2023 caste-based survey data, muslim voters influence outcomes in 47 constituencies or 20 per cent of the House strength. Which also means the Seemanchal region determines the outcome in 50 per cent of the total of 47 seats for which muslim voters matter very much.
Owaisi’s Majlis has put up candidates on 15 seats in this region [It has put up candidates in a dozen constituencies in other parts of the state]. In 2020, it fought in a lesser number of seats but had won five seats. Over time, four of them defected to Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and, therefore, was left with only one MLA. The number of seats won by parties in 2020 were : BJP – eight, JD(U) – four, Congress – five and RJD and CPI(ML) Liberation – one each. This time round the number of constituencies where parties have fielded candidates are : INDIA block / Congress 12, RJD nine, Vikashsheel Insan Party two and CPI(ML) Liberation one ; NDA / BJP 11, JD(U) two and Lok Janshakti Party three (Ram Vilas).
The eager claimants for muslim voters’ support, apart from Owaisi’s Majlis, are RJD, Congress and CPI(ML) Liberation from the INDIA block and Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) from NDA. Will Majlis play spoiler or will it emerge as a relevant factor ? Will it play spoiler for the INDIA bloc ? If it does, it will mean some gains for the BJP-led NDA. The defection of four Majlis MLAs to RJD after the 2020 battle certainly had impacted adversely the image of Owaisi’s party. Will that weigh with the Seemanchal electorate this time round? If that weighs, it should mean an inferior Majlis show. Firm indications will be available on November 14. (IPA Service)
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