Analysts at Nomura Holdings, Inc. estimate that Russia accounted for up to 36 per cent of India’s crude-oil imports this year, and that the share is poised to fall sharply by end-November as refiners diversify. They also highlight that while Russia’s discount relative to global crude has narrowed to as little as USD 1.8–2.2 per barrel, the real cost of switching lies in logistics, grade compatibility, and refining margin pressures. Questions remain regarding how swiftly pre-existing term deals — especially between India’s private sector refiners and Rosneft — can be unwound without creating supply disruption.
This shift carries implications for India’s fiscal and trade posture. By moving away from discounted Russian barrels, refiners will face higher input costs which could push up the import bill and squeeze refining margins. Nomura analysts note that any lowering of U. S. tariffs on Indian exports, contingent on energy-market realignment, could provide partial offset to this shift. One trade model suggests that a tariff reduction below the ASEAN average, if obtained as part of India-U. S. discussions, might compensate for the higher crude cost burden.
India has emerged as the largest recipient of seaborne Russian crude since 2022, with imports from Moscow reaching nearly 1.7 million barrels per day during the first nine months of this year, representing approximately one-third of the nation’s overall crude-oil imports. Documents and industry sources indicate that the sanctions will force India’s refiners to scale back purchases and pivot toward Middle-Eastern and United States supplies.
The sanctions target Rosneft and Lukoil and extend to their subsidiaries, meaning that any banking, shipping or insurance services connected to them could trigger secondary sanctions for counterparties. Indian refiners such as Indian Oil Corporation Ltd have already declared full compliance with international sanctions, although they declined to comment specifically on future purchases of Russian crude. Industry insiders believe that refiners will seek to avoid any direct exposure to Rosneft and Lukoil supply chains, even while some indirect flows via third-party traders may continue for a limited period.
From a geopolitical perspective, India is caught between energy-cost pragmatism and U. S. pressure to curb Moscow’s revenues. While the government has emphasised the need to secure “predictable and affordable energy” for India’s population of 1.4 billion, it has also moved to review all contracts linked to the sanctioned Russian firms. Refiners such as IOC, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd are reported to be auditing their supply chains to ensure no barrels originate from Rosneft or Lukoil after the wind-down date.
Market watchers expect that alternatives will include increased volumes from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United States, although some observers warn that transport costs and grade-mismatch issues will limit how quickly a full switch can be achieved. The complexity of refining operations, term-sheet commitments, and the premium shipping routes from the U. S. all point to a transitional period rather than an immediate cessation of Russian imports.
November 4 Elections Is Shaping Up As Referendum On Trump 