By Arun Srivastava
If the INDIA bloc in Bihar is facing serious incongruity on the issue of seat-sharing, with CPI(ML)-L, the BJP-led NDA is also fronting a serious challenge from the aggrieved state RSS leaders and ground-level cadres. Even the leaders of the smaller allies are aggrieved, but they don’t dare to oppose Narendra Modi and Amit Shah’s diktats openly.
For its part, the CPI(ML)-L leadership is angry with the manner in which RJD chief Lalu Yadav has treated it in this election season. They feel Lalu has inflicted severe damage to their stature and reputation by refusing to concede their claim of 30 seats. On the contrary he gave too much credence to the new ally VIP of Mukesh Sahani. This attitude of Lalu, they feel, reflects his disregard for the CPI(ML)-L.
CPI(ML)-L, retaliating to this treatment, has not only rejected RJD’s measly offer of 19 seats to them; instead, a major section of the ML leaders is in favour of going to polls on their own. ML has been offered 19 seats – the same number it contested in the 2020 Assembly elections, when it won 12 as part of the alliance. However, the CPI-ML (Liberation) has objected to both the number of seats and the proposed swapping of several constituencies it had contested last time.
The party general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya is not for blowing up the issue in the greater interest of defeating the BJP, but he is also feeling aggrieved at the behaviour of RJD leadership. Senior CPI(ML) leaders recall how Lalu had tried to underestimate them in 2020 assembly election. While it had allotted 70 seats to Congress, they were given 19 seats.
The party leaders recall that it was Lalu’s under estimation of CPI(ML)-L strength that the INDIA bloc lost at least four Lok Sabha seats in 2024 elections. For the compulsion to defeat the NDA led by BJP.CPI(ML-L is willing to join hands with centrist forces, but feels that RJD is not properly treating the Left forces.
Significantly, CPI(ML)-L is major political force in the districts of Madhubani, Gaya, Nalanda, Champaran and others, where coincidentally BJP is a key force. CPI(ML) had fought a sustained war against the feudal elements of these areas during seventies and eighties and still continues to garner huge support.
The CPI(ML), CPI and CPM have demanded at least 50 assembly seats. CPI(ML) is also dissatisfied because the RJD’s offer included swapping some of the seats the party won in 2020 polls. The CPI(M-L)-L leaders have submitted the list of seats where the CPI(ML)-L candidates have winnability.
The Left parties are surprised that, Lalu Yadav has no problem in conceding more seats to new ally VIP, led by Mukesh Sahani. This has two reasons: it cannot emerge as a major challenger, and secondly, its caste base, Mallah, the boatmen, never nursed an antagonistic relation with the supporters of Lalu. It would not come a surprise if RJD concedes Mukesh’s demand of deputy chief minister in case Mahagathbandhan wins the election.
This bickering has already started having its impact on the electorate. A section of the upper caste voters – Brahmins, Bhumihars, Rajputs and Kayasthas – who were showing the possibility of shifting away from NDA and BJP, have preferred to stay back. The youths of these castes who were quite critical of the policies of Modi, have refrained from doing so in public. They are watching the situation. The major loser of this shift would be Congress.
Similar ruffled feathers are being felt within the BJP and RSS camps also. Though the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat dislikes the idea of BJP winning in Bihar and strengthening the image of Modi, RSS chief can not afford to lose Bihar in its centenary year. Defeat of BJP will severely impede the growth of the RSS at this crucial stage. History has it that in the past, the RSS had voted against BJP candidates. In 2009, the RSS had voted selectively against L K Advani who was the prime ministerial candidate of BJP. Despite Advani’s candidacy, the BJP and its allies lost the election. Incidentally, Mohan Bhagwat was the RSS chief during the 2009 Lok Sabha election. He had taken over as the sixth Sarsanghchalak on March 21, 2009, just before the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, which were held in April and May.
But this time Bihar assembly election has completely divergent dynamics. BJP winning the election would further strengthen the clout of Modi on BJP as well as RSS. He would be in an even more envious position to challenge the authority of Bhagwat. In fact, Bhagwat has been caught in a very cagey situation. He can neither swallow nor vomit the bitter pill of ensuring a big win for Modi-led BJP in the crucial Bihar polls.
Bhagwat desperately needs a strong BJP for spread of the RSS. But a strong Modi will try to clip Bhagwat’s wings. Already the supporters of Modi have launched a campaign to install the RSS general secretary Dattatreya Hosabale, known to be a favourite of Modi, as the chief. This is certainly an attempt of Modi to show Bhagwat his place in the saffron ecosystem. A Bihar win will strengthen Modi’s grip and hold on the BJP, while consolidating his image as the only credible face of Hindutva.
The key role that Hosabale played at the function where Modi released a commemorative coin and postal stamp on the RSS, has only served to lend strength to speculations that he may be the next head of the RSS. If Hosabale indeed gets elevated to the top position, it will inaugurate a new era in the history of RSS-BJP relationship, with political power dominating the ideology.
Bhagwat is left with no alternative but to use his organisational prowess to ensure BJP victory. For this, he has strategized a ‘Mission Trishul’. The campaign involves identifying ‘angry’ voters, assessing which election issues are most important and analysing which issues could benefit or harm the BJP’s prospects in the election. According to BJP insiders, over 20,000 RSS volunteers are working at the ground level in Bihar poll campaign. The RSS has also deployed volunteers from other states including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand to assist in groundwork. (IPA Service)
