By Arun Srivastava
Apprehension that Narendra Modi would not provide a level playing ground to INDIA bloc in Bihar for winning the assembly elections has come true. Two latest developments that took place during last forty eight hours are testimony to the plan that Modi and his advisers have laid out to come to power across the country in the coming assembly polls, beginning with Bihar in November this year.
Of the two progressions, the most worrying has been the Chief Election Commissioner, Gyanesh Kumar announcing the date of holding the election, just a day ahead of the announcement of the Supreme Court verdict on the feasibility and reliability of the SIR. Gyanesh Kumar could have waited for a day. Heaven would not have fallen if the date of polling was delayed for a day. The court had announced earlier that it would come out with its verdict on October 7.
Otherwise too, the Supreme Court will find it tough to hear on the legality of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls as Article 329 of the Constitution curtails judicial intervention once the poll process starts. Gyanesh will resort to machination to foil any attempt to review the SIR and have a critical look at the suggestion made by the ECI in the SIR.
It is apparent now that the apex court would have to tread cautiously. The court had earlier promised that it would take action, even scrapping the SIR exercise, if some kind of anomaly is found in the SIR. Incidentally after the release of the final voter list, the opposition parties were ready with a comprehensive blue print to prove how the list contains huge anomalies.
The most important development has been Monday’s incident of trying to throw shoe on the Supreme Court CJI B R Gavai by a so called lawyer. Though justice Gavai did not make it an issue, the police ironically allowed the so-called person dressed as a lawyer to go home even without registering a case or thoroughly investigating the motive behind the incident. It is beyond imagination how could police construe Justice Gavai’s advice to the lawyers “”Don’t get distracted by all this. We are not distracted. These things do not affect me” as his direction not to take action against the so called lawyer.
What is significant is that the incident took place just a day ahead of SC pronouncing its order in SIR, Bihar matter and ECI announcing the date of polling. It obviously implied that the person who claimed to be “Sanatani Hindu” tried to terrorise the judiciary. He shouted inside the court; “Sanatan ka apman nahi sahenge.” He was ironically referring to an incident that had taken a month back. Besides, what is most important that the so called lawyer belonging to upper caste, had targeted Justice Gavai who is the son of a renowned leader, a prominent Ambedkarite who was present when B.R. Ambedkar converted to Buddhism in 1956.
Last month, Justice Gavai was involved in a controversy regarding a remark he made about a Lord Vishnu idol during a recent SC hearing in a case related to the restoration of a 7-foot beheaded idol of Lord Vishnu at Khajuraho. A closer look will make it clear that the remark was not of such intensity that a person should get provoked to avenge after a month of the happening.
The design of CEC to help NDA in Bihar elections is also manifest in the move to hold the mega electoral battle in two phases – on November 6 and on November 11. This would simply help the ECI in conducting the polling. The villagers and voters will be deprived of sufficient time to challenge the polling procedure. A multi-phase polling would have provided sufficient time to the people to challenge the wrong doings of the ECI and subversion of the electoral procedure.
Not only the opposition leaders, representing INDIA bloc, but even the state NDA leaders were sure of some changes in the polling process just ahead of the D-Day. This has primary reason that neither the INDIA nor the NDA has sorted out the issue of seat sharing. None of the camps, even the much touted Jan Suraj, have declared candidates for the 243- member Bihar assembly. Nevertheless the frustration and anger is of acute nature in the INDIA bloc.
RJD chief Lalu Yadav and his son Tejashwi are too keen to accommodate Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) in the seat-sharing arrangement. Though the RJD leaders do not publicly confess, the primary perception behind this move of theirs has been VIP emerging strong would not harm the political narration and future of the RJD. Senior Left leaders are quite unhappy, but they are not willing to join the issue. They nurse the view that the left must not do anything which will damage the image of Mahagathbandhan. the immediate objective is to defeat at any costs, the Left leaders feel.
Yet another reason for RJD leadership turning soft towards Mukesh has been his emergence as the prominent and key leader of Extremely Backward Class (EBC) groups. Earlier the EBC were with Nitish but now they have started shifting their allegiance to VIP and CPI(ML). Forming an alliance with Mukesh is worth for the RJD to attract the EBC vote, which can help expand the Mahagathbandhan’s electoral base beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote bank.
Meanwhile Congress emerging as a potential political force, representing the interest of the Dalits and EBCs has also put RJD in a precarious situation. Congress might have performed poorly in 2020 election, but this time it is accepted to catch the imagination of the EBC and Dalits. The RJD recognizes the role of Rahul Gandhi in Bihar polls and is ready to come to an understanding with the Congress without much hassle.
Mukesh has staked the claim for 60 seats and the Deputy Chief Minister’s post if the alliance comes to power. These high demands have complicated the seat-sharing negotiations. Though CPI(ML) is a stronger party in Bihar, it has refrained from raising any exaggerated claim. However the sources say that VIP would be offered 20 seats. The Dalits and EBC make up about 36% of Bihar’s population. But their voter base is fragmented into 113 castes (82 Hindu, 31 Muslim). Though the Muslim EBC would go along with general and upper caste Muslims, the RJD leadership is sceptical of the attitude of the non-Muslim EBC base, which is about 26%,. It is suspected that they may combine with Kurmi and Koeri votes and opt for Nitish Kumar.
Though BJP enjoys the support of upper-caste blocs, Brahmins, Rajputs, Bhumihars and Kayasthas, this is for the first time the BJP is dependent to a great extent on the machinations of the state machinery. They are however reaching out to non-Yadav OBC electorates, which constitute around 12.86% of Bihar’s total population. This group includes communities such as Kurmi (2.87%), Koeris (4.2%), Teli (2.81%), Mallah (2.6%) Bania (2.31%), among others. In the NDA, the JD(U) could contest 107 seats and the BJP 105, leaving 31 seats for the other constituents. Chirag Paswan is likely to get 22 seats and 7 seat each to Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Majhi. (IPA Service)
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