By T N Ashok
NEW YORK: Seven months into Donald Trump’s second presidency, the political landscape reveals a stark contrast between his current standing and the trajectory of his first term. Where Trump entered office in January 2017 with a 45% approval rating and the benefit of doubt from many Americans, his return to the White House in January 2025 has followed a markedly different path—one that has seen his approval ratings plummet to historic lows for his presidency.
Current polling data paints a concerning picture for Trump’s second term, with his approval rating falling to 37-40% across major polls—representing the lowest levels of his entire presidency spanning both terms. The most recent YouGov poll shows 56% disapproval, the highest share to disapprove of Trump’s performance in his second term. This represents a dramatic reversal from his first-term average, where he maintained approval ratings in the low-to-mid 40s throughout most of his presidency.
The decline has been particularly pronounced among independent voters, the crucial swing demographic that often determines electoral success. Independents have driven Trump’s approval to this second-term low, suggesting that his governing approach has failed to win over the moderate voters who were essential to his 2024 electoral victory.
Trump’s first presidency (2017-2021) was defined by several major controversies and policy initiatives: the Russia investigation, two impeachments, the travel ban, border wall construction, tax cuts, deregulation, and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. His approval ratings remained remarkably stable throughout these crises, never dipping below the mid-30s but rarely exceeding the mid-40s.
His second term has been characterized by an even more aggressive use of executive power, particularly in trade policy. Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs using emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), including a 10% tariff on all countries effective April 2025, and 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, plus 10% on China starting February 2025.
The centrepiece of Trump’s second-term agenda—his comprehensive tariff strategy—has become perhaps his greatest political vulnerability. Americans mostly disapprove of his tariffs, according to Pew Research, representing a significant policy failure in terms of public support.
Economic analysts have been particularly harsh in their assessments. The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects Trump’s tariffs would reduce GDP by about 8% and wages by 7%, with a middle-income household facing a $58,000 lifetime loss. These projections suggest economic consequences twice as severe as raising corporate taxes from 21% to 36%.
Trump has suggested tariff revenues may eventually replace income taxes for those making less than $200,000 per year, but estimates show tariff revenues would cover less than 25% of that cost. This ambitious restructuring of the tax system has drawn skepticism from economists and contributed to his declining approval ratings.
Despite Trump’s claims on social media that “Tariffs have not caused Inflation, or any other problems for America, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers,” consumer experience appears to tell a different story. Reports of “sneakflation”—gradual price increases attributed to tariff costs—have emerged, though the full impact has been delayed as companies rushed to import goods before tariffs took effect and initially absorbed some costs rather than passing them entirely to consumers.
Trump’s approach to foreign relations in his second term has followed familiar patterns of confrontational diplomacy and transactional relationships. His use of emergency powers to implement trade policies has raised questions about executive overreach, with critics arguing he’s bypassing Congress through unilateral declarations of economic emergencies.
The relationship with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which was contentious during his first term, has continued to be strained. Trump’s public criticism of Fed policies and interest rate decisions mirrors his earlier presidency, where he frequently blamed the central bank for economic headwinds.
Reports of tensions with international leaders, including disputes with India’s Narendra Modi over trade issues, suggest Trump’s second-term foreign policy maintains his first-term pattern of viewing international relations primarily through an economic lens focused on trade deficits and bilateral advantages.
The use of emergency powers to implement sweeping economic policies has reignited debates about executive authority. Trump’s reliance on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs represents an unprecedented use of what were originally national security tools for broad economic policy implementation.
Critics argue this represents authoritarian overreach—using emergency declarations to circumvent congressional authority over taxation and trade policy. Supporters counter that Trump is simply utilizing legal presidential powers to address what he views as economic emergencies requiring immediate action.
Seven months into his second term, the evidence suggests Trump’s aggressive approach has backfired politically, even if it advances his policy objectives. His approval ratings indicate that Americans are rejecting his governing style and specific policies, particularly his trade strategy.
The question of whether Trump is “a smart man in the room” or engaging in dangerous overreach may ultimately be answered by economic outcomes. If his tariff strategy succeeds in revitalizing American manufacturing and reducing trade deficits without triggering significant inflation or recession, public opinion might shift. However, early economic projections and current polling suggest Americans are skeptical of his approach.
The contrast with his first term is telling: where Trump previously faced institutional resistance and investigations that may have garnered him sympathy, his second term challenges are largely self-imposed through his policy choices. This time, his declining approval ratings reflect public judgment of his governing decisions rather than external circumstances or investigations.
As Trump approaches the midway point of his second term, the trajectory suggests a presidency that may struggle to achieve its ambitious economic restructuring while maintaining public support—a far cry from the political resilience he demonstrated during his first four years in office. (IPA Service)
