By Dr. Gyan Pathak
All circumstanced and the manner in which the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of Electoral Roll in Bihar is being carried out suggest that the Union Government led by PM Narendra Modi and the Election Commission of India (ECI) are aligning together. BJP has been claiming for a long time that a large number of illegal immigrants’ and duplicate voters’ names are in the voter list and therefore it needs a cleaning up. INDIA bloc on the other hand has alleged that the BJP leadership has got this process started with an intension of getting significant number of voters’ names deleted from the Electoral Roll to secure power in the state. There is a third opinion that these are but short-term targets and the real aim of the exercise aims beyond securing power in Bihar, encompassing the entire nation, ultimately by creating a template of NRC for the country, which has been stalled due to stiff resistance from the people of India.
Let us examine all the three claims one by one. Election Commission of India has said that they have found a large number of illegal Nepalese and Bangladeshi immigrants’ names in the voter list during the SIR exercise so far. The Commission has not given details regarding this, but it indicates that a significant number of voters’ names would be deleted from the revised voter list.
Now come to the INDIA bloc’s claim that a large number of voters, who they presume that they are their voters, are intended to be deleted. Their fears stem from the fact that a large number of disadvantaged poor people of Bihar do not have any of the 11 documents which ECI has enlisted as a valid document of proof of their citizenship. The results of the past elections have clearly shown that these people have been supporting INDIA bloc parties as against the BJP or NDA.
When we combine both the claims, we see a frightening political perspective for Bihar. A petition filed in the Supreme Court of India by an advocate Ashwini Kumar Upadhyay, who has towed the line of the RSS-BJP combine, has said that in every assembly constituency, there are 8,000-10,000 illegal, duplicate and ghost entries, and asserted that even marginal discrepancies of 2000-3000 voters can tilt election outcome.
The figure surprising almost matches the claim of Mahagathbandhan leader Tejashvi Yadav’s claim. He has claimed that even a one per cent of exclusion of voters from the rolls could lead to disenfranchisement of nearly 7.9 lakh voters across Bihar. In the last election held in the state in 2020, “in 52, the victory margin was just 5000 votes. If this continues, around 3,200 votes could be cut per constituency.”
The calculations of both Ashwini and Tejashvi suggest that even a deletion of 3000 votes can impact political outcome of the state. If the opposition’s allegation of the intended voters to be deleted, both the legal and illegal voters, suspected to be the support base of INDIA bloc, comes true, it would tilt the balance in favour of the BJP.
Have we reasons to believe the allegations of opposition that the real intention behind SIR in Bihar is to delete large number of voters from the voter list? The answer is in affirmative which is supported even by the statements of the ECI, not only in relation to the illegal immigrants from other countries, but also from their intention to delete the names of the migrant workers of Bihar who are working outside the state. ECI has already expressed its intention to delete the duplicate entries from the voters’ lists. When we read it with the Chief Election Commissioner’s statement made in a meeting of election official that a person should get their name in the voters lists where one generally lives, not in their native place.
Therefore, there is a reason to believe that in an effort to clean the voters list significant number of non-resident Biharis’ names are likely to be deleted from the revised Electoral roll in Bihar. Additionally, the ECI has not yet accepted the suggestion of the Supreme Court that it should consider to accept Aadhaar card, ration card, of Electors Photo Identity Cards as sufficient proof as citizenship.
The entire SIR exercise in Bihar is thus set to delete the large number of voters from the Revised electoral roll, since millions of people would not be able to provided the documents that ECI is demanding. This prospect seems to be real in spite of the Supreme Courts stern warning that determining the citizenship of a person in out of the jurisdiction of the ECI.
What are then options before the ECI.? The first option is to delete large number of names from the voter lists who would not be able to prove their citizenship. ECI had given a deadline of July 25 to submit documents, and now has said that they can submit the documents even during the claim and objection window up to September 1. The draft electoral roll will be published on August 1, and the final electoral roll will be published on September 30.
Given the observations and suggestions of the Supreme Court during a hearing on July 10challenging the ECI’s order of June 24 for SIR in Bihar, ECI has two options – first to outright delete the names of voters who would fail to produced valid documents as a proof of citizenship, or just mark them as D voter as it was done in case of Assam, the only state that has National Register for Citizens (NRC). D voters, means doubtful voters or disputed voter, would them be easily prevented from voting despite their names not being deleted from the voter list. It is not known yet what the strategy ECI would adopt, to avoid any adverse decision of the Supreme Court, which would hear the case next on July 28.
Here comes the third most frightening opinion of an effort of creating a template for NRC for the entire country, since the ECI has already declared that SIR for Bihar is the beginning and the exercise will be conducted for other states too. The latest report is that ECI has already activated its field machinery to prepare for a nationwide SIR of Electoral rolls to remove illegal foreign migrants.
If Assam experience is of any indication, the government is likely to begin its exercise to create NRC for the country, from the Revised Electoral Roll as a template for NRC. The names of the deleted voters or D voters, would then be sent to an authority having power to determine citizenship of a person, such as Foreigners Tribunals.
The Assam experience suggests that the persons who would not be able to prove their citizenship before the competent authorities might be apprehended and sent to detention centres for deportation to their respective countries.
The recent report of illegally push back illegal migrants at gun point to Bangladesh, after being apprehended from across the country, without giving them enough time to prove their citizenship before any competent authority is another risk.
The tension in Bihar is being built to new high after such incidents reported recently. It has also been reported that several citizens of West Bengal were apprehended and sent to Bangladesh who have been repatriated after the intervention of West Bengal government. People don’t expect such a support from a BJP or NDA led government.
Assam experience shows that millions of Hindus and Muslims could not prove their citizenship, and had been going great hardship. Onus has been shifted from the state to the citizens to prove citizenship.
The two aspects of the issue – securing political power with manipulation of voter list and creating a voter list as a template of a nationwide NRC – are haunting the people. It is irony that the ECI’s Electoral Roll which is being treated as the basic list for citizenship issue, and ECI is insisting on documents, is now treating its own EPIC as proof of citizenship.
In brief, Bihar is heading towards a difficult phase of political and social conflict of interests, which will ultimately cover the entire country before the Lok Sabha election 2029, when Modi government intends to implement “One Nation, One Poll” and delimitation of the constituencies after the Census to be completed by March 2027. Indians might be heading towards a socio-political vortex navigating which may not be easy. (IPA Service)
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