Trump Is In Backfoot In Tariff War, India Should Extract Maximum Benefits

By Anjan Roy

The visit of the US vice president, J.D. Vance beginning Monday indicates a subtle turn in the relations between the two countries, India and US. There is a personal note in this four day visit amidst the turmoil in global trade over Trump’s tariff war.. Vance is known as a hawk and bit abrasive also. But there is another side, his family- his wife Usha a lawyer of Indian origin who has pride in her Telugu ancestry. Through Usha, Vance is conversant with much of Indian culture and history.

Significantly, the vice president visited Monday among his first engagements, the Akshardham temple in Delhi during which the Vance family children wore Indian costumes and were wearing garlands around their little necks. That underlined the personal and cultural bonding of the second family with India, which they went a long way to display.

Secondly, India is of critical importance for USA, as this country is viewed as a bulwark against the rising influence of China in Asia and in overall geo-politics. US views China as its arch rival both economically as well as, in the mind of the Americans, in the global strategic balance.

It has to be noted that the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, is currently on an extended tour of South East Asia to build a network of nations which could stand besides China in its face off with the USA. Until recently, the South East Asian countries were almost client states of the United States.

Now China is trying to wean them away from USA with seemingly attractive accommodation in the vast Chinese markets and in collaboration to build roads and bridges. China is trying to impress these countries as a far more reliable collaborator than the USA. In this sense, China is seeking to isolate USA from its old ring of friends and allies in Asia as well as elsewhere.

Following Trump’s capricious tariffs and threats, US is already rather isolated from the major players on the global stage. Trump has deeply hurt China as well as the EU, the two blocks most important economically, as well as in terms of strategic diplomacy and geo-politics. World resents Trump’s vanity and presumptions of American superiority.

Vance is extremely important in Trump set up now and his role was witnessed during the infamous meeting of the US prescient, Donald Trump, with the Ukraine president, Volodomyr Zelensky. Vance has the ears of Donald Trump, even though Trump is always his own man. Vance was prominently seated in the meeting with Italian premier during her recent trip.

Thus, India has now got the advantage of having Vance listen to India’s points of view in these difficult times, when USA has launched virtual war against leading economies with his barrage of tariffs. India has also been subjected to the so called reciprocal tariffs, now set in abeyance temporarily for ninety days.

In case India is able to convey the US team of its genuine desire to have a reasonable trade deal with the US, instead of a full scale trade war, this would open up new windows for Indo-US relations. India has already started the early negotiations on tariffs and some recent concessions point at the direction of the change.

This stands in sharp contrast to the stands of two major players in the world — China and the European Union. But make no mistake, the moment Trump is able to strike some deals with either of them, because of their critical importance, he will jump at it. He will walk away with his victories over these players and showing the world what great deal-maker he is.

More so now, because his image as a fast deal maker and his boasts about his ability to draw the Ukraine war to a close “in a day” have all been exposed. He had pandered to the Russian strongman Putin to no avail and Putin has swung hi around with his clever diplomacy. Trump badly needs to restore his credibility as an arbitrator and a doer. A trade deal with a big country like India could be a sort of feather for him.

It is this sweet window now available to India for seeking a favourable deal with the United States that should be monetised, before the compulsions for Donald Trump shift away to others. India has to take the right steps taking into national interests. (IPA Service)