By Dr. Gyan Pathak
By announcing outside support to INDIA bloc, Trinamool Congress Supremo Mamata Banerjee has just expressed the opposition’s belief at the pick of election campaign for the fifth phase that India is heading for a hung parliament. Election campaign for the fifth phase will end on May 18, and election will be held on May 20. What made Mamata to announce outside support is TMC’s overwhelming performance in the first four phases in West Bengal.
Many political analysts now say that on account of no wave for or against any political party of combination in these elections, there are neck and neck contests in majority of Lok Sabha constituencies between the NDA and INDIA bloc candidates. It means no political party or combination are likely to have the magic 272 seats to form the government on their own, and would need to have support from outside. So far, the two major political parties – BJD of Odisha and YSRCP of Andhra Pradesh are likely to provide outside support. Though TMC is part of INDIA bloc, her declaration is significant that she would not participate in the INDIA bloc, and would support it from outside if they come to form the Union government in New Delhi after election results are out on June 4.
Though her announcement is by and large seen as strategic move to psychologically bogging down the BJP election machinery in West Bengal, in the similar fashion as Modi claimed 400+ seats earlier, one can’t simply brush aside some truth lying underneath her statement. In the first four phase of election, 18 Lok Sabha constituencies have already polled. BJP was found struggling to retain their seats. Political observers say that BJP had perceivable edge on only couple of seats to the much frustration of PM Narendra Modi, and also Amit Shah who had set a target to win 35 seats from West Bengal. A total of 24 constituencies would poll in the nest three phases, and TMC is going strong. Now it seems that BJP will have very tough time in retaining its 18 seats that the party had won in 2019 from the state.
By the fifth phase of elections scheduled on May 20, 428 Lok Sabha constituencies would have completed polling. BJP’s electoral prospect does not seem to cross half way mark. Even the NDA allies have not performed well as expected, which may make NDA’s tally below 214. In the sixth and seventh phase there will be only 114 Lok Sabha constituencies to poll, and the BJP will have to exert a lot to win over half of those seats to have majority in the 18th Lok Sabha.
It does not mean that INDIA bloc’s position is good. They too are much behind the majority mark, as the current trend suggests. According to some analysts, INDIA bloc’s tally would not even reach the tally of the NDA’s, a clear indication that the INDIA bloc will have to depend on outside support from non-NDA, non-INDIA bloc parties. As for BJP and Congress are concerned, BJP’s tally still seems to be heading for more than double of the Congress. It will be frustrating for the PM Narendra Modi who had said that Congress would not win even the number of seats as the Shehzada’s (Rahul Gandhi’s) age (54). His declaration may prove to be wrong since Congress has been seen resurgent across the nation during election campaigns. In 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress got 146 seats and led the UPA government. It is to be seen whether the Congress can touch his figure which is quite tough considering the figure of 52 in 2019 elections.
Total 8 states and UTs are going to poll for their 49 seats in the fifth phase of election. BJP has the highest stake since any loss of its current seats would cost BJP their third term. In Bihar election would be held for 5 seats, in Jharkhand 3, in Maharashtra 13, in Odisha 5, in Uttar Pradesh 14, in West Bengal 7, in J&K 1 and in Ladakh 1. BJP seems to be struggling everywhere.
Though the BJP is pretty comfortable in Uttar Pradesh for this phase of election, Congress-SP alliance has been offering tough contest, and has an edged in about 3 seats. West Bengal presents a difficult situation for BJP in most of the 7 seats going to poll in the fifth phase.
Out of the three seats in Jharkhand going to poll on May 20, BJP seems to have and upper hand in all of them. However, in Bihar, situation is reverse. Congress-RJD is giving very tough contest to BJP-JDU-LJP (RV) combine in all five seats.
Position in Maharashtra is still complex, and there seems to be neck and neck contests in all 13 seats going to poll in this last phase.. Ladakh and Baramulla seats are set to vote for the opposition political parties in next phase.
The last, but not the least is Odisha, where Naveen Patnaik’s BJD is seemingly recovering its lost political ground in the last one week, on account of reckless personal attack of PM Narendra Modi on the state chief minister. Now BJP will have to struggle to retain its 8 seats it had won in 2019 from the state. (IPA Service)
