Even before the strategy session of the opposition meet makes public its common minimum programme and broader paradigm of their electoral policy at Shimla on July 12 the opposition leaders have decided to accord a distinct ideological character to their endeavour and identify it as Patriotic Democratic Alliance. What is really significant is the proposal surfaced just within 48 hours of the formal announcement that the second conclave will be held at Shimla to give their effort a definite organisation character.
This move of the opposition leaders makes it explicit that they are getting ready for a long drawn ideological battle with the rightist BJP and RSS. Their giving a new name, instead of reviving the old UPA, sends a clear and loud message that they intend to take the struggle into the den of the saffron brigade. So far the RSS and BJP have been committing all kind of repression and torture on the opposition leaders by labelling them as anti-nationals. The new word “Patriotic” symbolises the determination of a direct confrontation to the political hegemony of RSS-BJP of using nationalism for their political benefit.
To achieve the mission, like Arjun targeting the proverbial Fish’s Eye, the opposition is aiming at the seats spread in Bengal, Bihar, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Himachal, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Karnataka. In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won Bihar (40) 17, Chhattisgarh (11) 9, Himachal Pradesh (4) 4, Jharkhand (14) 11, Karnataka (28) 25, Maharashtra (48) 23, Punjab (13) 2, Rajasthan (25) 24, Tamil Nadu (39) 0 West Bengal (42) 18 and Delhi (7) 7 seats. The opposition leaders are hopeful of performing well in other states too, but if they manage to win substantial seats in these states, they would succeed in forcing the BJP out of power.
Though an impression is being created by the BJP ecosystem and some rightist experts that the prevailing political situation is still congenial for Narendra Modi coming to the power for the third time, they tend to forget that politics is not static and the political condition in 2023 has no Pulwama element. Both the PM and Amit Shah are in a state of awe at the transformation of the ground level politics. In any other situation Amit Shah must not have convened the opposition leaders meet to discuss the Manipur massacre. This approach of Shah reinforces the belief that the BJP leadership has turned nervous and nurses the strong feeling that that this time their tricks and jumlas would not work. Their designs have been exposed..
The resolve of the opposition leaders to defeat the BJP is also manifest in their move to prepare a blue print of the strategy and programme even before arriving in Patna to participate at the meet. They had already worked out the tactics to field one candidate against the BJP candidate in one constituency. As Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge told the press after the meet that the stronger party in a particular state would be given preference in finalising the electoral mechanism. Nevertheless this policy decision would be formally announced at the Shimla conclave.
The Shimla conclave would set a small core committee for constant monitoring and scheduling of the policies and programmes. The core committee would be entrusted with the responsibility to interact with the major state level party to finalise the seat sharing and sort out any problem. The effort of the leaders is to provide an institutional character to the unity exercise. It is crucial for winning the trust of the people. The past incidents of coalitions falling apart and partners accusing each other have made the people distrust any such exercise. Institutionalising their exercise is being looked as a trust winning device.
Though Rahul Gandhi is willing to walk extra miles to accommodate the desires of the opposition leaders, it is presumed that after demolishing BJP’s Karnataka fort, the party may like to have some major share in other states too. Nevertheless Rahul’s assertion that he would like to defeat the BJP has been a major solace for the opposition. The sources however maintain that Congress is keen to contest in at least 350 seats across the country, including in Bihar, Bengal, Jharkhand and Delhi, where regional parties RJD-JD(U), JMM, TMC and AAP, are the ruling parties with bigger vote shares..
Interestingly no opposition is worried of the hostile attitude of AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal. They hold the view that he should have adopted a pragmatic approach. “It has not come as a set back at all for the opposition unity” observed the CPI, General Secretary D Raja. He did not take seriously the discordant note of Kejriwal. He asserted that as independent political parties there can be “small angularities” on certain matters but those were being overcome. He said the secular democratic parties that have come together are capable of taking a decision on any issue “collectively”.
Even Nitish was unimpressed with the AAP going into a sulk over the ordinance, which seeks to curtail the powers of the Delhi government. “It is very unfortunate that the AAP seems to be looking at the issue through the prism of rivalry with Congress in Delhi and Punjab,” said CPI(ML) Liberation general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya. He held the view that ordinance was an attack on the federal character of the country. He asserted that it was wrong on AAP’s part to say in an official statement that the Congress “refused” to oppose the ordinance at the meeting, despite being asked to do so by “many parties”.
He said; “All parties were unanimous in the condemnation of the ordinance. But the AAP leadership must place the issue in a broader context. It is about the attacks on the Constitution and the principal of federalism by the BJP government, a reason why we all buried our differences and joined hands”.
In sharp contrast to Kejriwal’s stance, the leaders had praise for the National Conference and PDP leaders. They said “friends from Jammu and Kashmir showed maturity. They recalled that AAP had voted in favour of the bill, in Parliament, that stripped the northern state of its special status, its statehood and its integrity”.
People’s Democratic Party chief Mehbooba Mufti said; “Arvind Kejriwal did raise the issue of the ordinance at the meeting. Nobody flinched from criticising the ordinance. I also did not hold a grudge against his party having voted in favour of scrapping of Article 370. Though the agenda of the meeting was opposition unity”.
As the opposition parties get prepared for the crucial Shimla conclave, more internal discussions will follow, new non-BJP parties will be approached and all efforts will be made to make the Shimla discussions more productive. Nitish Kumar, Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee and Sharad Pawar will play key roles. They are determined that the Shimla conclave should form the basis of a historic agreement of the opposition to oust Narendra Modi from power in 2024 Lok Sabha polls. (IPA Service)