With no real third option, it’s most likely going to be a direct electoral fight between the BJP-led NDA and the Samajwadi Party-Congress INDIA bloc in Uttar Pradesh in the upcoming Lok Sabha 2024 elections, with vacillating BSP of Mayawati fashioning a perception of uncertainty amongst the voters and also between the two warring camps.
Though SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is confident of retrieving a significant number of seats from the clutches of BJP, his inconsistency in projecting INDIA, and oscillating between the bloc and his PDA plank has been creating confusion, especially amongst the Muslims and Dalits. His reluctance to rope in the Muslims and Dalit leaders and inability to inspire trust amongst them has also been a major cause for their alienation and unwillingness to identify with him.
Technically, PDA will have dominance of the Yadavs, with Dalits and minorities as allies. In contrast, INDIA is perceived as the greater forum of all the deprived castes and classes having equal share and voice. Muslims and Dalits are quite keen to rally behind Rahul Gandhi, but the absence of a credible Dalit or Muslim face in the Congress has been proving to be a substantial deterrent. Some of the prominent Dalit leaders who were with Samajwadi Party till six months back, have now switched their loyalty complaining of differential treatment.
Muslims have yet not forgotten the ill-treatment meted out to Azam Khan by Akhilesh. Nonetheless, one is certain that the Muslims of UP are inclined towards the Congress and they will vote for it. But they are yet to reconcile and forgive Akhilesh. However, since they are rallying behind the Congress, they are expected to stand by SP, instead of wasting their votes.
Dalit and Muslims point out that Yadavs even in this period of extreme crisis have not extended their support to them and came forward to fight together the saffron repression. They point out that the Dalits have suffered most during the Yogi rule. The alleged poisoning of Mukhtar Ansari on March 19 leading to his death has simply turned Muslims more insecure. Though Mukhtar Ansari was a don, his death under mysterious circumstances confirmed the fear that he was killed only for being a Muslim. The state government was obviously trying to send a distressing message to the Muslims in Uttar Pradesh.
There are around 213 million Muslims in India, comprising 15.5% of the population. Dalits form around 16.6%. In Uttar Pradesh, Muslims are 19% and Dalits 20.7%. Together, they make up about 40% of the population. The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that even this huge population is feeling insecure under Modi and Yogi rule.
But on its part, the BJP, especially the RSS, has initiated a fresh outreach programme to make them vote for BJP. At no cost will the RSS prefer to lose UP. If the sources are to be believed, the RSS and BJP has motivated Asaduddin Salahuddin Owaisi, president of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and Pallavi Patel of Apna Dal ( Kamerawadi) to take the lead in cutting the Muslim-Dalit vote share. The front has already been floated and efforts are being made to broad-base it.
Apna Dal (Kamerawadi)was till recently an SP ally, along with and the little-known Rashtriya Uday Party led by Baburam Pal, and Pragatisheel Manav Samaj Party led by Prem Chand Bind. Taking a cue from Akhilesh, the leaders have decided to christen it as ‘PDM Nyay Morcha’, which would represent “Pichhde, Dalit, and Musalman”, obviously in direct competition to the SP’s PDA (Pichchde, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) pitch. On paper, this has the potential to dent the SP’s Muslim-Yadav vote bank.
At the formation meet Owaisi sought to know from the Muslims of UP what Akhilesh has done for them. “In the last Assembly elections in UP, 90% Muslims voted for the SP, but what was the result? No one wants leadership of the Muslim community. They only ask for their votes,” Owaisi said. Patel accused the SP of practicing dualism. She claimed that Akhilesh was not true towards Dalits. She alleged that SP chief Akhilesh Yadav had not lived up to his promise of prioritising the backwards.
Supporters of Akhilesh have a valid point when they say that both these parties are politically irrelevant and do not deserve any mention. But the fact cannot be ignored that they will add to the creation of an anti-INDIA perception, feeding the common voters the idea that the INDIA bloc does not seriously care about Dalits and Muslims. This is enough to electorally dent the fledgling INDIA bloc.
Moreover, the smaller parties aren’t completely irrelevant either. In May 2023, the AIMIM put up a better showing in urban local body elections – five of its candidates were elected as Nagar Palika Parishad or Nagar Panchayat chairpersons, and 75 to municipal corporations. While it lost the Meerut mayoral candidate race to the BJP, it ended up ahead of the SP. Apna Dal in alliance can also be a potential force. Until 2014, the Apna Dal had failed to win a single Lok Sabha seat. But an alliance with the BJP in 2014 helped the united party win two parliamentary seats.
In 2022, the two parties got enough votes to outnumber the winning margin in as many as 19 Assembly seats. Of these seats, the BJP and its allies won 10 and the SP won 9. AIMIM’s vote share was 3.4% in Azamgarh, and Apna Dal (K)’s 5.5% in Mirzapur, 6.6% in Pratapgarh and 6.3% in Varanasi.
Mayawati, the BSP chief, continues to be the most mysterious political figure. Though the ED and CBI have been torturing and harassing the opposition leaders across the country on false and flimsy charges, none of them have turned supine. But Mayawati has completely surrendered. Strange enough, she has so far not taken a clear political line, though the poll process has started. Of course, the BSP has duly announced its list of 12 candidates.
By putting up her own candidates, she has managed to register her presence in the electoral battle and nothing beyond that. It has around 12.4 per cent vote share in the state. It is really shocking how could a Dalit leader betray her supporters by not upholding and spearheading their electoral battle. Sources maintain that since already some senior Dalit leaders are with the BJP, the BSP cadres may also prefer to rally behind the BJP.
The INDIA bloc has also suffered a psychological setback with Rahul Gandhi sticking to his Wayanad seat. His shifting to Wayanad has a demoralising impact on the Congress workers who were sure of defeating Smriti Irani, as she has failed the people of Amethi. Wayanad is ironically set to witness a tough contest between INDIA bloc allies. The Congress and the Communist Party of India (CPI), which are part of the Opposition’s INDIA bloc, will be contesting against each other for the key Wayanad seat. Since Rahul had won in 2019, the CPI could have fielded Annie Raja from some other seat. She is the wife of CPI general secretary D Raja and holds the post of general secretary in the party’s National Federation of Indian Women.
Nevertheless, Irani has been accusing Rahul of running away from the poll battlefield after seeing a certain defeat. Irani said: “I represent that constituency where once wearing the BJP turban was like bringing object of death to home, sporting a tilak and taking Ram Nam was like a political curse”. (IPA Service)
