By Sagarneel Sinha
After 12 years of being in power, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is slowly losing the narrative. The recent student and youth protests in Jantar Mantar along with solidarity protests in different parts of the country and also in social media have given a clear indication of growing dissatisfaction among some sections of students and youth with the BJP government.
Just when the dust of the protests was settling down, the BJP found itself in a fix after losing the Bankipur assembly seat bypoll of Bihar to election strategist turned politician Prashant Kishor, who is leading his new formed party, Jan Suraj Party (JSP). Bankipur was a safe seat for the ruling saffron party as it had retained the seat for 31 years. This is a major setback as this was the bastion of present BJP national president Nitin Nabin. More importantly, this defeat is a warning sign for the saffron party as this constituency is mostly dominated by the Hindu Upper castes, considered the traditional vote bank of the saffron party. This defeat indicates that cracks have started to appear in its traditional vote bank, and it can’t take it for granted.
The Bankipur result isn’t an isolated one. The BJP also lost the Datia assembly bypoll in Madhya Pradesh to Congress. While the ruling saffron party can argue that it was a Congress seat, it can’t deny the fact that its vote share got reduced in Datia, another constituency dominated by Hindu Upper castes.
Aren’t we exaggerating the two bypoll results? After all, two months before the BJP came to power in West Bengal for the first time. With this victory, the three eastern states — Bihar (Anga), West Bengal (Banga), and Odisha (Kaling) — came under saffron control, completing BJP’s expansion in the eastern region. True that BJP’s victory in Bengal can’t be negated, and has its own significance.
Having said this, often problems happen when the empires are at their peak level. The same seems to be happening for the saffron party. Although, the party is yet to reach its peak as most of the Southern states aren’t under its rule. Even then, cracks have started to appear in the traditional vote bank of the saffron party. A significant Hindu Upper castes have been dissatisfied with the party after the UGC equity regulations, which were later stayed by the Supreme Court. They believe that the saffron party has taken their support for granted while appeasing the Dalits and Other Backward Classes.
Amid this, anti-incumbency is also gradually catching up with the BJP after 12 years of rule. This was evident in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls where the saffron party’s seat tally got reduced and it failed to achieve a majority. Unemployment is a burning issue. More than 8 lakh posts in the public sector under the Centre are vacants. Along with that, there is skepticism among the Dalits and the tribals regarding the Modi government’s privatisation drives of the public sector companies. They believe privatisation would weaken the reservation system as there is no reservation in the private sector. It is this reason that there have been demands of reservation in the private sector too from these sections. And this is another tricky terrain for the BJP. If it goes for more appeasement of Dalits and tribals and implements reservation in the private sector, it is bound to face anger from the Upper castes.
After 12 years in power, it is natural for anti-incumbency sentiment to grow. The recent protests are part of the broader trend. Electoral victories give a government the legitimacy to govern for a particular term — in India’s case, 5 years. But to sustain this legitimacy throughout its term, a government needs to closely listen to the voices on the ground, acknowledge its shortcomings, and be willing to correct them.
However, this government places too much emphasis on electoral victories, and falsely believes that it has the unrestricted mandate to carry on its agenda, with the expectation that even the Opposition should fall in line. That is problematic. Opposition will oppose, and a section of the population will inevitably disagree with the government’s policies.
The government needs to be tolerant, and must respond properly. It must rein in its ecosystem (mostly known as the right wing) which labels “anti-national” and “anti-Hindu” to those who question the government’s flaws. This doesn’t mean that anti-national or anti-Hindu voices don’t exist — they certainly do. But these labels must be used with greater caution, distinguishing those who generally hold such views from those who simply call out the Modi government’s flaws and failures. When the BJP ecosystem blindly puts such labels on every protest, it only harms its own image. This approach creates the perception that the saffron party is intolerant of genuine criticism and is only interested in hearing praises.
The ruling BJP must realise that its old rhetoric is losing its effectiveness and is no longer enough to address the challenges it faces. It needs to change its communication strategy. More importantly, the Modi government needs to work on its flaws on the ground. It should prioritise transparency, accountability, and effective execution of projects on the ground, without sounding arrogant. While the slogan “Vikshit Bharat 2047” illustrates long term strategy, the government must also focus on goals and commitments that it can realistically deliver before its current term ends in 2029. Also, Modi should give his own cabinet ministers greater autonomy to formulate and implement policies within their respective departments. Ministers shouldn’t be mere puppets. Greater autonomy to them would increase the government’s work efficiency. (IPA Service)
