By Tirthankar Mitra
Nandigram and Rejinagar by-polls, scheduled to held on October 6, will be litmus tests for both the ruling BJP and main opposition Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. The by-poll results are going to be announced on October 9.
The saffron camp seems confident of winning both the by-polls. It is up to the two factions of Trinamool Congress, which is a divided house, now to prove which of the breakaway groups has a larger support base.
Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari, having won from both Nandigram and Bhabanipur, has vacated the former. Having defeated Mamata Banerjee from Bhabanipur, her home constituency, Adhikari has chosen to retain it.
Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) representative, Humayun Kabir won from both Rejinagar and Nowda. He has vacated the Rejinagar seat.
Kabir had been suspended from Trinamool Congress after starting to build another Babri mosque in Beldanga/Rejinagar area. Thereupon, he founded AJUP and contested and won from both seats.
An upbeat Chief Minister Adhikari has called upon the Nandigram voters to help his party nominee exceed the margin in Falta Assembly segment. Debangshu Panda, the BJP nominee, won by a margin of more than 1,09,000 votes at Falta.
As for the Rejinagar by-poll, Kabir himself has said that BJP is most likely to emerge victorious. Making his intent clear he said that while BJP looking for the votes of 21 per cent Hindus, he will campaign in the interest of 79 per cent Muslims of this constituency.
The outcome of the twin by-elections will be pointer to the popularity and organisational strength of Trinamool Congress. It is a divided house with the faction led by Ritabrata Banerjee, legislator from Uluberia Purba.
The first-time legislator claims to have 65 legislators owing allegiance to him. He has been acknowledged the leader of the Opposition by state Assembly Speaker, Rathindra Bose.
The rest of the MLAs owing allegiance to Mamata Banerjee are led by veteran legislator, Sovandeb Chattopadhyay. If the numbers speak for the breakaway group of legislators’ supremacy, it would be premature to consider that to be an indication of their mass popularity.
Martyrs’ Day of Trinamool Congress observed on July 21 has been a pointer of the shape of things to come. The legislators owing allegiance to Mamata Banerjee observed the day near Birla Planetarium on Cathedral Road had a pleasant surprise in store for them
The Cathedral Road rally addressed by Mamata Banerjee overflowed with Trinamool activists. The crowds were conspicuous by their absence at the Mayo Road rally of the dissident faction.
It was learnt that both the factions of Trinamool Congress will field their candidates in the by polls. Heading the faction loyal to Mamata Banerjee, Chattopadhyay was certain of victory unless, he alleged the party’s booth representatives and counting agents were driven out by police.
Reading between the lines, the faction-ridden former ruling dispensation ensures a division of anti-BJP votes. This gives BJP a leg up in both the by-polls.
Candidates of the by-polls are yet to be announced by any of the contesting outfits. If the saffron camp riding the crest of a successful poll results has many candidates to be by-poll candidates, the situation is just the opposite for the opposition outfits.
Kabir had earlier won in Rejinagar as a TMC candidate. But as the by-poll inches closer, his mention of demographic percentage of Rejinagar is a pointer that he won on votes cast on communal lines.
As far Rejinagar is concerned, Kabir won by more than 58,000 votes in the recent election. The AJUP is most likely to field a nominee, and so will both sections of Trinamool Congress.
It will boil down to cutting into the anti-BJP votes among three parts. If it brightens the chances of the BJP nominee, the percentage of votes bagged by both factions of Trinamool will be of interest to one and all.
Nandigram, where Adhikari defeated his one-time leader Mamata Banerjee, by a slim margin in 2021 elections, still has some pockets of TMC votes. But it is learnt that this constituency has an insignificant support base of the dissident faction headed by Ritabrata Banerjee.
In sum, a change, read depletion, in the number among the dissident ranks seems to be on the cards, once the results are declared. The faction faithful to Mamata Banerjee is already receiving feelers from those who parted company.
The dissenters will have to pass a pick-and-choose test. But the by-poll results will point out the extent and solidness of the two factions of the erstwhile ruling dispensation. (IPA Service)
