By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Just after the results of MLC elections were out, Prime Minister Narendra Modi led a taunt against Congress for their ‘loss’ on October 28 by posting on X and followed such by the BJP-RSS clan. PM Modi posted, “MLC elections in 28 seats across 4 big states – Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, and Karnataka. Elections held using ballot papers. Guess how many seats Congress one?” Pat came the answer from the BJP leader and Chief Minister of Maharashtra Devendra Fadnavis who reposted it with his post, “A big ZERO! At least Congress is consistent… .” It was followed by a BJP General Secretary from Mumbai who said, “Ballot paper or EVM – the result is the same of Congress!” However, result of Maharashtra brought a great humiliation for Fadnavis, because Congress won a seat in his home district Nagpur, and in utter disgrace he had to delete his post.
PM’s trolling Congress on ballot paper is a reminder of the Congress demand to return to ballot paper from EVM, which they alleged being manipulated. However, PM Narendra Modi seems not felt the humiliation in Varanasi even after BJP supported candidates lost both the teacher and graduate seats, from where he has been winning Lok Sabha seat since 2014. Political sand has just shifted from beneath his feet. It is worth noting here that council polls are not fought on party symbols, but political parties back candidates.
PM Modi seems not perceiving the political snare beneath is feet laid out by INDIA bloc. The Golden Vulture of Benares in the Jataka stories perhaps rightly told the king of Benares, “When end comes … nor trap nor snare you spy even laid beneath your feet.” Modi may have tried to conceal his humiliation of loss by taunting Congress, but he has still to learn the lesson from BJP’s loss in the Varanasi MLC results, especially in his or BJP-RSS clan’s political citadel.
There is also another lesson for PM Modi in the Golden Vulture Jataka, in which there was a merchant who was benefited from gems and jewellery stolen by the vultures, who were ultimately caught, among them was the Golden Vulture who said to the king “when end comes … .” The merchant had to return the stolen goods to their rightful owners.
For PM Narendra Modi and the BJP, Congress is his chief political rival, as his taunt itself indicated. Congress and INDIA bloc has been alleging that PM Modi and BJP have been winning by “stolen votes” stolen by CEC Gyanesh Kumar and his men. They have also claimed that they have caught the thieves. The case against CEC is now in the Supreme Court of India, and the anti-CEC protest movement with a demand for his removal has spread across the country, and is continuing with gaining strength day by day.
Among the four states – Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka – where MLC elections were held – Uttar Pradesh result was most consequential for PM Modi personally and BJP as a whole, since it is the only poll bound state where legislative election results are due in early 2027. BJP is ruling Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra, while Karnataka is ruled by Congress.
Congress did not contest any seats in Uttar Pradesh, rather put its weight behind INDIA bloc ally Samajwadi Party candidates, and five of them won. SP’s win on both the graduate and teachers constituency in Varanasi was the greatest personal embarrassment for PM Narendra Modi personally, and for BJP is general because they hold this Lok Sabha Constituency. Educated people are real opinion makers and hence their moving away from PM Modi or BJP is politically alarming for them.
No seat is won by independent this time. Six are won by BJP and 5 are won by SP. It indicates SP’s gain of two seats, that is net INDIA bloc’s gain ahead of legislative assembly election in Uttar Pradesh. Political battle was direct between BJP and SP (INDIA bloc), and it will likely to continue.
Another indication from the result of Uttar Pradesh is that BJP as well as PM Modi’s influence is on the wane in Eastern Uttar Pradesh. Even in Gorakhpur-Faizabad teacher seat, BJP could win by only a margin of 307 votes. BJP did well in Western UP and won retaining the Meerut graduate and teacher seats, the Bareilly-Moradabad teacher seat, the Lucknow teacher seat, the Agra graduate seat. Credit goes more to CM Yogi Adityanath that to PM Narendra Modi. Nevertheless, SP bagged the Agra teacher seat, the Allahabad-Jhansi graduate seat and the Lucknow graduate seat, signalling that SP has considerably gained strength even in Western Uttar Pradesh. Hence, the results of Uttar Pradesh contain lessons for PM Modi and CM Yogi in particular and the RSS-BJP clan in general, ahead of Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly election.
Bihar is also ruled by BJP led NDA. Elections were held on 8 seats, BJP won 3, JD(U) won 1, RJD won 1, Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) won 1, and independents two seats. NDA had won 4 seats in 2020 and hence they retained their tally. Most significant setback for BJP was the loss of Patana teacher seat which its candidate had been winning for the last five consecutive elections, and which it lost to RJD. Nevertheless, BJP’s most significant victory was from Tirhut (Muzaffarpur), which it snatched from CPI. Congress lost its Darbhanga seat to JSP, a new entrant in Bihar politics. JD(U) suffered serious infighting, but won Patna graduate seat. Bihar result indicates changing political scenario in Bihar, with weakening of both JD(U) and the BJP.
Maharashtra is another state ruled by BJP led NDA, where five seats went to polls. It is indeed a poor performance of the ruling Mahayuti who could win only two seats – BJP 1, and Shiv Sena Eknath Shinde 1 seat. Three seats were won by the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) – NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) 2 seats and Congress 1 seat.
Congress win on Nagpur graduate constituency was real humiliation for BJP-RSS clan in general and CM Fadnavis and Union Minister Nitin Gadkari in particular, because Nagpur is the RSS headquarters and the home district of Fadnavis and Gadkari. Before coming to Delhi, he was MLC for 24 years from there until 2014. Both Mahayuti and MVA witnessed infighting, which should be a matter of serious concern for both sides. The results are likely to trigger a change in inner or intra party political permutation and combination in Maharashtra.
Karnataka was the only state ruled by the Congress, where elections were held for four seats. JD(S) was able to snatch the lone Bengaluru teacher seat from Congress, while BJP retained its three seats winning North-East teacher, South-East graduate and West graduate constituencies. It was a great humiliation of Congress in general and CM DK Shivakumar in particular. Karnataka BJP chief B Y Vijayendra called the result a rejection of Congress, but it seems more likely an outcome of infighting in the Congress, which the party needs to take seriously, where assembly election is scheduled for 2028, just before Lok Sabha election 2029. (IPA Service)
