By Anjan Roy
TORONTO: Indo-US trade dispute has now quickly morphed into a full scale diplomatic and security row. Both sides are digging in and refusing to budge from their respective positions as apparent from the statements from even the highest levels.
This is clearly an escalation set in motion by the US president in his aggressive talks on India. In a press interaction in the White House, Trump disclosed that all current trade talks with India have been suspended.
Even US think tanks and news media believes Trump’s abrasive actions have destroyed years of meticulous efforts to reset Indo-US relations from being antagonistic to collaborative.
India’s prime minister has publicly stated that India would not budge and sacrifice its farmers, dairy sector or the fishermen’s interests at any costs.
The US president has announced that trade talks with India would be discontinued and next rounds set already stand cancelled until India resolves the outstanding differences on market access. He reiterated imposition of secondary sanctions were related to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.
In the midst of all these hardening of stances, the White House trade adviser, Peter Navarro, has made observations that the trade differences have now transcended into a security issue. The reason is India’s continued purchases of Russian oils and arms which are funding the Ukraine war.
As a sign of total divergence, Indian prime minister had now held talks with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and further reiterated their stand for collaboration on a wide range of issues. India and Russia have long term trade relations not only in oils but India is a major buyer of Russian weapons systems.
Prime Minister’s Office, as if to further emphasise the proximity of the two countries, further disclosed that the Russian president had briefed prime minster on the latest developments in the Ukraine war. This has underlined the extent of transparency in the relations.
Showing consolidation in relations, India has now extended an invitation to the Russian president to visit the country. It may be recalled, India did not encourage Putin’s visit to India even for an international summit in the context of the arrest warrant on him. Now, India seems to be predisposed to ignoring the arrest warrant for the sake of expression of solidarity.
The Russian leader carries an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for his treatment of children caught up in Ukraine war. The court had observed that Putin had forcibly transferred some children to Russia from their parents.
Additionally, India had sent its national security adviser, Ajit Doval to Moscow who held talks directly with the Russian president. When many European leaders have not been given direct access to the Russian president and his high profile meeting with the US president is on cards, the special discussions with Ajit Doval gains in prominence.
At the same time, India has rejected all indications that it was going slow or at least temporarily suspended its multi billion dollars arms and weapons systems purchases from USA. Contradicting a report by an international news agency, India has reiterated that the purchase programmes are on course and at different stages of implementation.
Another defence engagement, that of defence minister, Rajnath Singh, is on schedule and indications are that it will go through. Rajnath Singh is travelling to USA to meet his counterpart in Washington.
However, given the vehemence of Donald Trump’s attacks on India for its downright rejection of US demands, it might be possible that the US unilaterally suspends some of these contacts and scheduled meetings. That could be damaging for both the countries much to the glee of Russia which has emerged as the overriding counterweight for the US and the western alliances.
The US has however, not dared to touch China with any of the sanctions and additional tariffs although Donald Trump has been talking about his wider application of the secondary sanctions. China has continued to buy large quantities of Russian oil in defiance of the US stance.
This could be possible because of some singular stranglehold the country has over the US. In his transactional style, Donald Trump has shied away from implementing his sanctions and tariffs against China as it is the single most critical supplier of critical rare earth minerals to America.
China had ordered suspension of all rare earth minerals and magnets supplies to USA as Trump had threatened to jack up tariffs on the Chinese exports.
At the same time, it has to be admitted that China has serious military might which threatens even the US might. China currently possesses a large naval fleet more sophisticated than the US and it has the retaliatory armoury against US which prevents the USA to approach the country from too close a range.
The Chinese deterrence power, both economically as well as in military power is a lesson to be learnt for the future. Chinese national strength is directly traceable to its unprecedented economic success over last three and a half decades.
If anyone, it is China which has gained from the sudden estrangement between the world’s two biggest democracies. China had even gone to the extent of expressing its displeasure when Indo-US thawing in relations had first begun and pointed out to India that these initiatives would not serve India well. (IPA Service)
