By Ashok Nilakantan Ayers
WASHINGTON: Three weeks before November 3, American voters are not waiting for Election Day. In the states reporting, they are returning ballots at a pace well ahead of the last midterm, and the partisan lean of those ballots favours Democrats. Whether that lead survives contact with Election Day is the proposition both parties are staking hundreds of millions of dollars on.
The backdrop is bleak for the party in power. Reuters/Ipsos put President Donald Trump’s approval at 32 percent this week, a record low for his second term. The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey had him at 37 percent, the lowest of any president heading into a midterm in that paper’s polling since 1990.
By the standards of a midterm, early voting is running hot. One running tally compiled by Electoral-Vote counted roughly 1.68 million ballots already cast, against about 264,000 at the same point in 2022. Registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by better than two to one among ballots with a known party.
Is that normal? It is above normal, though not all of it is enthusiasm. In 2022, 47 percent of voters cast ballots early, according to the Brennan Center, and states such as New Jersey, Virginia and Nebraska have since made early and mail voting easier. Structure explains some of the surge. The partisan skew explains the rest.
The primaries foreshadowed it. In Georgia’s May primary, Democratic early ballots rose 53 percent over 2022 while Republican ballots fell 13 percent. In North Carolina, early turnout among registered Democrats climbed from 9.5 to 12.8 percent, while Republican turnout held flat at about 8.6 percent. A CNN analysis found Democrats’ share of mail-ballot requests up from 62 to 66 percent in Pennsylvania and from 54 to 67 percent in Iowa.
A subtler shift emerged this week. An NBC News Decision Desk analysis found Democrats in Georgia and North Carolina requesting fewer mail ballots than in 2022 but returning them faster. In North Carolina, 22 percent of requested Democratic ballots are already back, against 17 percent at this point four years ago. Democrats appear to be choosing in-person voting or taking no chances with the postal clock.
The caution is simple. Party registration is not vote choice. Early electorates skew older. And in 2024, Republicans embraced early voting after years of leaving it to Democrats. An early Democratic lead is a signal of intensity, not a result, and Republicans, who historically vote later, have every reason to expect their share to grow as Election Day nears.
Does a voter’s declaration at the polling booth shape the trend that follows? Mostly not, but three things are often confused.
First, a ballot cast by mail or in person is banked. It cannot be changed by a late scandal, a debate or an ad. The larger the early share, the shorter the persuasion window, which is why campaigns now front-load their spending.
Second, what an exit pollster hears does not travel. Edison Research, which runs the national exit poll, surveys early and mail voters by phone, text and email and in person at early sites. Results are embargoed until polls close, because an incomplete sample is not representative of the electorate. A voter’s answer feeds a post-election analysis, not a pre-election bandwagon.
Third, what does move behaviour is public data and social signalling. States publish who has voted, by party registration, though not by choice. Campaigns use those lists to chase low-propensity supporters and to starve races that look settled. And social proof, from “I Voted” stickers to a neighbour’s post, has been shown in field experiments to nudge turnout. The feedback loop is real. It runs through who gets contacted, not through what any voter confesses.
Trump’s name appears on no ballot, yet nearly every contest is a referendum on him. The AP-NORC poll found only 17 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the cost of living and 26 percent approve of his economic stewardship. Some 65 percent say his policies are responsible for high prices, against 44 percent who blamed Joe Biden in October 2022. The Iran war, now more than seven months old, has pushed up fuel and food prices, and few voters expect it to end soon.
The kitchen-table arithmetic of groceries, gasoline and rent has turned against him, and the erosion reaches his own side: 52 percent of Republicans say he is falling short on the cost of living. Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote this week that Trump is a drag “across the board even in deep red states.”
History says the damage compounds. Gallup finds presidents under 50 percent approval lose an average of 37 House seats in midterms. Trump lost 40 in 2018, when his rating hovered between 40 and 44 percent.
Candidates are bracing differently. Maine’s Susan Collins is leaning on her breaks with Trump over tariffs and the Iran war. The president himself has rallied in North Carolina for Senate candidate Michael Whatley. Republicans are trying out a “lower prices, bigger paychecks” message, though Cook’s Amy Walter argues even their best economic pitch may not move voters. Democrats are running squarely on affordability, hoping every grocery receipt and gas pump does their canvassing.
The air war. AdImpact projects a record $11.6 billion in political advertising this cycle, with the Senate alone at $3.4 billion. The House projection was cut to $2 billion because redistricting left 28 races less competitive.
The money is concentrated. As of September 22, Ohio’s Senate race, where Republican Jon Husted faces Democrat Sherrod Brown, had drawn about $197 million, the most in the country. Texas, where Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico, followed at $140 million. Maine had drawn roughly $110 million, North Carolina $82 million, Georgia $79 million and Iowa $75 million. Maine leads in spending per voting-age resident at $167.
They account for 60 percent of aired spending in the nine Senate battlegrounds and lead in eight of them, AdImpact reports. Democrats made up 53 to 54 percent in each of the past three cycles. Of $513 million reserved for the final 34 days, Republicans hold 61 percent. A Thune-linked PAC poured $77.5 million into Texas in September alone. Georgia, where Democrat Jon Ossoff is favoured, is the one marquee state where Democrats outspend Republicans.
Money is also leaving. Republican super PACs have begun withdrawing from North Carolina to redirect funds elsewhere, and AdImpact had earlier trimmed spending projections for North Carolina, Florida and New York. Spending is not decisive, either. Democrats led broadcast airings in Ohio and North Carolina despite being outspent there, and in Texas a 44 percent Republican broadcast advantage bought only an 8 percent edge in airings.
The Senate is 53-47 Republican, so Democrats need a net gain of four. Cook now projects two to six Democratic pickups, moving Kansas to Toss Up, New Hampshire to Lean Democratic and North Carolina to Likely Democratic, where Roy Cooper is the nominee. Toss-ups include Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. In Maine, Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson after a late candidate switch, and Cook notes polling there is notoriously unreliable.
In the House, Republicans hold a 218-214 edge. Cook lists 43 competitive districts, 22 of them toss-ups, and on Friday moved 18 more ratings toward Democrats. NPR reports that both parties’ financial decisions suggest the question is how large a Democratic majority emerges, not whether. The Silver Bulletin generic-ballot average gives Democrats an 8.9-point lead. Redistricting redrew lines for roughly one in ten voters and blunts the national swing. Georgia’s governor’s race, projected at $197 million, is among the costliest in history.
The verdict. The evidence points one way. Democrats hold the intensity edge, the polling edge and the early-vote edge, and a president at 32 percent is a weight no ad budget has lifted. Republicans hold the money edge, a favourable redistricting map and the memory of 2022, when a small Democratic lead in generic-ballot polling still ended with a Republican House.
The Senate is a genuine contest that will probably be settled in Ohio, Maine, Michigan and Texas, where Republicans are spending most and Trump’s drag is heaviest. Early ballots tell us who is motivated. Only the final Tuesday tells us who is enough. (IPA Service)
