By Arun Srivastava
Nothing is well with the NDA in Bihar, right before the two-phase polls on November 6 and 11. The political development inside the NDA has strayed away from the path as envisioned by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. Their plan to condense Nitish Kumar to the level of nonentity has failed. The two top leaders of BJP had diligently dropped enough hints that dumping Nitish was their priority as with him around, they cannot have their way.
Basically, this was the reason that even after the last date of filing the nomination papers, they refrained from announcing the name of the chief ministerial face. Both of them were quite evasive. On last Friday, while Modi remained tongue tied, Amit Shah simply said, “NDA allies will fight the Bihar assembly elections “under the leadership of JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar” but a decision on who will head the next govt will be taken by elected legislators”. Modi-Amit combination was keen to exploit the image and following of Nitish for winning the election, but they were averse to have him chief minister. In the event of NDA victory in the polls.
But Nitish’s supporters were insistent. They would not accept any other person as the chief minister. JD(U) spokesperson Neeraj Kumar put out an immediate response: “When the elections are being fought under Nitish, how can anyone else become chief minister?” Even those who have started nursing the feeling that “he is finished” have thrown their support behind him.
What has indeed come as shock is, even after being aware of the fact that NDA in Bihar has vertically split, the BJP leadership did not mend their ways. The insiders nevertheless point out that this primarily owes to deepening squabbling among the state leaders and unwillingness of the RSS to participate in the electioneering. However, Amit Shah has made a tactical change for pre-empting any major crisis. He said “Modi is PM in Delhi and Nitish is CM in Bihar”. This is nothing but a ploy to diffuse the crisis. Amit was not emphatic that Nitish is the CM face.
On Friday Modi addressed two rallies in Bihar, but he refrained from disclosing the name of the would-be chief minister. This shocked Nitish’s supporters.., This action of Modi, simply reinforced the feeling among Nitish’s supporters and common voters that NDA has split vertically. At a time when the NDA should have stood united against the challenge of the INDIA Bloc a message is going down the line that the two factions of NDA, one led by Nitish and another by Shah, are fighting each other. One faction has BJP and LJP of Chirag Paswan and other consists of Rashtriya Lok Samata Party of Upendra Kushwaha and Hindustani Awami Morcha (HAM) of Jitan Ram Majhi.
BJP’s cadres and leaders nurse the hope that with the central leadership’s help, the BJP will win the election. This impression has gained strength also for the reason while Modi has been focusing on the areas from where BJP candidates are in the fray, Nitish has been concentrating on the constituencies from where JD(U) candidates are in the fray.
PM’s continuous diatribe against RJD and the CM face of INDIA Bloc Tejashwi is not paying dividends. People are witness to Tejashwi stepping out of his father’s shadow. He makes his decision. Over the years he has emerged as a leader in his own right. Modi desires to make him grapple with the baggage of the Lalu-Rabri years, but this is not working. State leaders expect some new campaign thrust from the PM, but they are not getting it.
Sharp increase in the number of bloody incidents during Nitish’s rule has obliterated Modi’s accusations. Differences are being drawn between the two phases. During Lalu’s time emergence of new political force was primarily responsible. Lalu could not comprehend the nature of political changes that had surfaced. Moreover that was the period when communal forces were raising their heads.
Today that kind of political churning is not there on the political horizon. The forces which played a key role in giving Lalu regime a bad name, are now in power. The dynamics and dimension of politics has changed. In such a situation the accusation against RJD about jungle raj is not working. On the contrary, the present Bihar under NDA rule is witnessing upsurge in pure criminal violence. The increase in the overall number of crimes in Bihar has been 80.2% from 2015 to 2024, as per the State Crime Records Bureau (SCRB) data. From 2015 to 2023, according to the latest available national-level data, India saw an increase in overall crimes of 32.5%. The number of crimes in Bihar has risen every year since 2015.
PM and the Home Minister Shah desperately have been trying to convince the people of Bihar that “father” Lalu created jungle raj, obviously “son” cannot be expected to provide a good governance. The common voters seek to know why NDA government, headed by Nitish failed to provide a corruption and violence free rule? Modi’s accusation received a jolt with a former legislator, a Bahubali, Dularchand Yadav being killed in full public view and run over by the vehicle of JD(U) men. Though on Saturday the JD(U) candidate and famous gangster Anant Singh was arrested for the killing, people look at it simply as an eyewash
Bihar people have started to comprehend the differences between father and son. While Lalu used the politics of rusticity to build his image of leader concerned of the plight of the rural poor and backward castes, Tejashwi though identifies with the Dalit and pasmanda Muslims, has urbanity as his “unique selling virtue” (USV).
The BJP leaders have worked out this strategy to counter Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign of Vote Chori and a promise of jobs for the youth. Various opinion polls predicting INDIA having an upper hand has unnerved them. The younger generation is not willing to buy the stuff offered by PM and Shah. ‘Vote Chori’ allegations and NDA’s unfulfilled promises are likely to tilt the scales in INDIA’s favour., the observers say.
The discontent amongst the NDA partners is so acute that they could not release election manifesto in a coordinated and peaceful manner. The show lasted only for 6 seconds. Nitish arrived on the dais, showed it to the people assembled for the occasion and left the dais. All the NDA leaders left the dais within five minutes, leaving the task for reading the manifesto to the journalists by the deputy chief minister, Samrat Choudhary. The schism between the BJP and Nitish Kumar was evident at this meeting to release the manifesto. It will be seen to what extent, the NDSA partners can work unitedly on the polling days. (IPA Service)
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