By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Despite the threat posed by climate change, global efforts at mitigation and adaptation are not keeping pace with the increasing risks: even if current pledges are kept to, the planet will still be on track for a 2.4-2.6°C temperature rise by the end of the century. At present, projections suggest that even if the national climate plans for all 195 countries that are signatories to the Paris Agreement are implemented, emissions are still likely to increase by 8.8 per cent by 2030.
The World City Report 2024 by UN-HABITAT, while given this warning, has said, “To limit temperature rise to no more than 1.5°C, as called for in the Paris Agreement, global emissions have to decline by 45 per cent by 2030 compared to 2010 levels and achieve net zero by 2050.
Although most countries have agreed to strengthen their climate action plans, lower their emissions and even set net zero targets, there is still a significant gap between rhetoric and action. Bold steps towards reducing emissions are yet to be taken.
By contrast, policy support to produce fossil fuels remains strong. A recent assessment of national energy plans and projections shows that “the world’s governments still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C”.
A further sign of misaligned commitments and actions can be seen in the fact that many major fossil fuel-producing countries are planning to scale up production for years or decades to come, resulting in near-term increases in the global production of coal (until 2030) and long-term increases (until at least 2050) in oil and gas.
In line with this trend, fossil fuel subsidies reached a record US$7 trillion in 2022 in the wake of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict. In particular, the conflict placed energy transition at a crossroads and provoked a global “gold rush” for oil, gas and even coal.
These investments have the potential to lock in new GHG emissions for decades and are essentially competing with efforts to accelerate the energy transition and close the 2030 emission gap. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that the global energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war carries the potential to hasten the transition to “a cleaner and more secure energy system.”
New policies in major energy markets such as the US, EU, China, Japan, Republic of Korea, and India are likely to push annual clean energy investment to more than US$2 trillion by 2030, up from US$1.3 trillion in 2021.
A review of the long-term low-emission development strategies from 62 parties to the Paris Agreement(representing 83 per cent of the world’s GDP, 47 per cent of the global population and around 69 per cent of total energy consumption in 2019) indicates that the world is starting to aim for net zero emissions. If fully and timely implemented, these countries’ GHG emissions could be 68 per cent lower in 2050 than in 2019.
While this represents a bright spot, there is lingering uncertainty regarding many net zero targets. Questions remain as to the wisdom of postponing into the future much critical action that needs to be taken now.
Nevertheless, amidst the lack of ambition characterizing climate action, there is still some optimism, albeit within a decreasing window of opportunity. A decisive milestone for climate action took place at the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), when almost 200 countries agreed to “transition away” from coal, oil and gas, a move hailed as the “beginning of the end” of fossil fuel dependence.
Notwithstanding, there is a sense of disappointment in many quarters that the COP28 agreement was not more far-reaching in calling for the explicit commitment to phase out fossil fuels. It remains to be seen how this agreement will be translated into action and what role cities can play in this process: in the meantime, it is likely that fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix for some time to come.
As for cities are concerned, 64 per cent of the urban population has a high level of exposure to climate disasters, the report has noted. The concentrated nature of people, businesses, institutions, and infrastructure in urban areas makes them particularly vulnerable to climate shocks. The urban poor, particularly residents of informal settlements, are disproportionately exposed to extreme weather events on account of their location, poor quality of construction and limited savings.
Many cities, in particular coastal urban areas, are vulnerable to sea level rise and flooding. By 2050, there will be over 800 million residents of coastal cities at risk of at least 0.5 metres of sea level rise and flooding.
Besides the risk of coastal inundation, cities are also exposed to rainwater flooding as a result of inadequate drainage and the increasing coverage of concrete, asphalt and other materials that prevent water infiltration. Other climate change impacts that are context-specific to cities are urban heat islands. By the 2050s, more than 1.6 billion urban residents will be exposed to extreme temperatures of at least 35°C. As with flooding, poor residents tend to be disproportionality exposed to extreme heat and its attendant impacts. Another problem is urban air pollution, which is entwined with climate change, accounted for 6.7 million premature deaths in 2019, making it the world’s largest environmental risk factor for disease and premature death.
The report specifically mentions unregulated private development in flood-prone coastal cities that has exacerbated flooding for some low-income communities. It also mentions North India among some of the most affected regions to extreme heat. It also mentions acute climate-induced water scarcity and droughts and has given example of India where 22 of the 32 cities are experiencing shortages.
Limited water supplies will in turn trigger food insecurity, the report warns. By 2050, according to one projection, 2.5 billion urban residents in over 1,600 cities will live in countries where one or more major crop (wheat, maize, rice or soya) is projected to decline. As these and other climate-induced threats become more frequent and intense, societies may struggle to recover from one event before the next one occurs. (IPA Service)