By Dr. Gyan Pathak
With Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) supremo Arvind Kejriwal’s ruling out any possibility of alliance with Congress and INDIA bloc partners, BJP rank and file’s morale has got little boost , though the party is still struggling to find out a matching strategy to dislodge AAP from power of the National Capital Territory (NCT) Delhi. Morale of AAP’s rank and file is visibly dominant on the eve of Delhi Assembly election whose term is to expire on February 23. Other political parties are seen have feeble presence in the Delhi election scene.
At a time when it is generally believed that a joint political front, such as INDIA bloc, must be strengthened by the opposition to take on BJP, Kejriwal’s decision of going solo in Delhi has surprised many political analysts. However, AAP sees the situation differently, when it comes to Delhi, since AAP and Congress fought the Lok Sabha Election 2024 together but it could not help either to win any of the 7 seats, all of which went to the BJP.
The reason is not a secret. Congress was a divided house and they could not bring their supporters to polling booths – both in the constituencies where they were contesting, and in the Constituencies where AAP was contesting. Infighting is still going on in the Congress, and in case of AAP-Congress alliance, some defection in the party was feared, as it happened before the Lok Sabha Election 2024.
AAP has also recently been suffering from defection and some of the key leaders have already defected to the BJP, which included former AAP leaders like Kailash Gahlot, who was also minister in the AAP government. AAP has nothing to offer to Congress in the state assembly election since in 62 seats the party has sitting candidates, and on the 5 seats party candidates were runners up losing those seats to BJP. In 2 seats JD(U), and in 1 seat, LJP was runners up, and both the parties are with BJP this time. AAP is therefore not in a position to any seat sharing arrangement with any other political party, without suffering rebellions, on many seats.
In Lok Sabha Election it was quite different case, since all the seats were won by the BJP, and in five of them INC was runners up in 2019, while in 2 of the seats AAP candidates were number two .It was in that backdrop, alliance with AAP and Congress became possible for Lok Sabha Election 2024.
Therefore, AAP’s going solo decision has made BJP’s position difficult. BJP will have to fight tough electoral battle in every constituency. BJP has another problem of dissatisfaction among the party’s rank and file, since turncoats are being given undue weightage. It has been seen recently in the case of former AAP leader Kailash Gahlot who had even led a demonstration against Kejriwal on behalf of BJP. There are other cases in every constituency where BJP rank and file are feeling ignored while turncoats are being running the show.
The next problem with the BJP is that there is no political leader in the party who can match Arvind Kejriwal as a politician. The lack of leadership in the Delhi Pradesh BJP is a serious problem. Several senior BJP leaders have been pushed to the margin by the BJP’s Central leadership, especially by PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.
As for the issues are concerned, Kejriwal has been able to sensitize the people of Delhi over rising level of Crime. Delhi’s worsening law and order situation is slowly becoming a political issue in the state, which is under the Centre. Even Arvind Kejriwal has been attacked thrice in the last 35 days. Gangsters and criminals have been making even police their victim, what to call about others.
Pollution is an issue in Delhi, but politically speaking, people of the state held both the Centre and the state government responsible for that. It means that it would not impact political outcome of Delhi Assembly election.
What is important for Delhi is the position of electricity and water supply, education, and healthcare. Kejriwal’s AAP is far more reliable than the BJP among the average people of the state for getting the services cheaper and for many free of cost. BJP is trying its best and is promising better services than the present incumbent AAP. However, there are few takers of BJP’s promises.
AAP’s welfare initiatives in Delhi are still a dominant factor which may influence the voting pattern. The party has already launched grassroots meeting at the booth level. The party has planned 65,000 such meetings. The party is promising even more freebies in electricity, water, healthcare, and education. Free bus ride to women, and cash to help then run their household or to take care of their personal needs is additional attraction.
BJP will have to come out with matching strategy especially in regard to welfare programmes. Hindutva consolidation will not be enough. (IPA Service)
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