By Dr. Gyan Pathak
BJP has raised its pitch on getting delimitation of parliamentary constituencies and women’s reservation bills passed in a special session of the Parliament of India to be convened soon. Though BJP has not required two-third majority in either House – the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha, the Union Minister of Home Amit Shah has been reported to have said that the bills will be passed by a margin of 15-18 votes.
Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh said on his post on X on November 12, “The Home Minister has revived the ‘delimitation plantation’ today while talking informally to a group of journalists. He told them this afternoon that a 3-day special session will soon be called and the Bills will be passed by a 15-18 vote margin.” Ramesh also said, “He had said the same thing seven months earlier, but on April 17 faced a humiliating defeat in the Lok Sabha by a decisive margin, falling short by over 50 votes. He is the master of bluff and bluster. His bulldozer did not work then and will not work again.”
Convening a special session has always been speculated ever since the Monsoon Session of the Parliament of India was adjourned sine de on August 13, but not prorogued. It gave rise to the speculation that government would convene the special session to pass the contentious bills, which were defeated during the Budget Session. Since the session is not prorogued, the special session can be called with a short notice of two days. Winter Session is likely to begin between November 30 and December 4, which needs a 14 days notice.
Special session is not yet officially announced, but it has been a foregone conclusion in the media that it will be held, whether the government will succeed in getting the bills passed or not. BJP’s raising its pitch has two twin targets apart from securing the numbers to pass them – the weakening the political cohesion of the opposition that they have shown during the anti-CEC anti-SIR movement, and influencing the forthcoming legislative assembly election in Uttar Pradesh in early 2027, the state that sends largest number of MPs in the Lok Sabha on which power at the centre heavily depends.
The reports have suggested that PM Narendra Modi has offered cabinet posts to DMK and NCP of Sharad Pawar as part of a deal to get their support of delimitation and women’s reservation bill. Earlier, both the parties have indicated that they might support the delimitation bill provided that interest of their respective states – Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra – is protected. Nevertheless, both the parties are in a complex situation, and they may not finally opt for losing their entire political identity and future just for a couple of seats in the cabinet, only to serve the political interests of the BJP.
BJP knows it, but is pushing its narrative that they have enough majority and they will get the bill passed with a margin of 15-18 seats. The narrative is not convincing since NDA has only 319 MPs in 543 member Lok Sabha, and only 154 MPs in 250-member Rajya Sabha. Three seats are currently vacant in the Lok Sabha, and therefore BJP will need 360 votes in the Lok Sabha, and 163 votes in the Rajya Sabha. BJP has said they have 320 votes in the Lok Sabha. Even this is true there are huge gaps in both the Houses, and there is no possibility of passage of the bills.
Even then BJP has aimed at pushing the bill because they are aiming at the things far beyond getting support from the opposition on the bills. It aims to weaken the opposition by talking separately with the INDIA bloc parties and trying to isolate the Congress which is leading the INDIA bloc.
DMK has 22 MPs in the Lok Sabha, NCP (SP) has 8 and JMM has 3 MPs. BJP representatives have had talks with all of them. BJP believes in give and take, and it has been reported that they tried to give them temptation of cabinet berths and other benefits. BJP is toying with the idea that if they can’t vote in favour of them they can at least stay away from the vote which will reduce the requirement of votes for two-third majority.
In the Rajya Sabha, even in absence of DMK MPs, NDA will need 157 votes for two-third majority. In that case NDA will need support of BJD, and YSRCP, which are at present not part of the NDA or INDIA bloc.
Some BJP leaders are saying that they are even talking to Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. SP has currently 37 seats in Lok Sabha. The state is going for poll, and therefore, SP can’t afford to oppose the delimitation because the state will be the biggest beneficiary of this exercise. Then SP also can’t go against the women’s reservation because it may affect their political fortune. But these are childish arguments. SP can’t afford to ditch INDIA bloc at this moment of time, since it would then be political suicide for the party, which it can’t do. Nevertheless, BJP is trying its best to break the cohesion between SP and Congress in Uttar Pradesh, by persuading the SP that the party may abstain from voting. It will reduce the requirement of votes for two third majority, and only then the bill could be passed.
BJP believes that even if they can’t get the bills passed in the parliament they can campaign against the SP and Congress in Uttar Pradesh as anti-Uttar Pradesh and anti-women, which will improve the BJP’s prospect of retaining power in the state.
INDIA bloc is already aware of the BJP’s strategy, and they are committed to unitedly defeat the bills in the parliament, and the BJP’s gameplan in the electoral battle of Uttar Pradesh. DMK, NCP(SP), and SP has regional interests different from the national interest of the Congress. Supporting the delimitation, or abstaining from voting, would be political suicidal for them in their respective states, which they can’t afford for temporary gains. (IPA Service)
