By Pradeep Kapoor
LUCKNOW: The alliance between Asaduddin Owaisi and Chandrashekhar Azad could introduce a significant new dimension into Uttar Pradesh politics as the assembly elections are scheduled in the first part of 2027. On November 12, the two leaders announced the formation of Samajik Parivartan Morcha. They have declared Chandrashekhar Azad as their chief ministerial candidate and announced an intention to contest all 403 Assembly seats.
This is not merely an AIMIM alliance with another regional party. It is an attempt to create a political platform combining Dalit and Muslim representation outside both the BJP-led NDA and the Samajwadi Party-led opposition. The target is capture 40 percent of total vote share consisting 19 per cents Muslims and 21 percent dalit population in the state.
The fact remains that Azad Samaj Party of Chandra Shekhar Ravan could not get even one percent votes and same was the status of AIMIM of Assaduddin Owaisi in the state – during last elections in 2022.
This alliance could pose the biggest challenge for Akhilesh Yadav who is leading main opposition in UP. Akhilesh Yadav is looking for alliance with Congress and other smaller parties. Akhilesh Yadav has built his PDA (Pichhde, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) formulation around backward classes, Dalits and minorities.
Now Owaisi and Chandrashekhar are attempting to appeal to two important components of that same social coalition. Owaisi wants to establish AIMIM as a more assertive political voice for Muslims. Chandrashekhar wants to expand his Dalit political base beyond Nagina and western UP. Together both are attracting those voters inadequately represented in the established political parties.
The problem with Akhilesh Yadav is that whether he can retain Muslims and dalits when another alliance offering the separate leadership. The new alliance can pose problem for Mayawati and her party BSP. Significantly Mayawati has always been the principal voice of dalits votes especially powerful jatav community.
The decline of BSP vote share in successive polls resulted in winning only one MLA in UP Assembly in 2022. An indecisive Mayawati who sacked her own nephew Akash Anand from number two position so many times is unable to provide strong leadership to dalit voters.
It is being debated in political circles whether this alliance was formed to help BJP by causing damage to Akhilesh Yadav, Congress and BSP. There is no doubt that Owaisi will get a bigger platform and Chandra Shekhar Ravan has been projected as chief minister. Ravan plans to tour the districts in a vigorous campaign along with Owaisi.
Akhilesh Yadav has shown political maturity by welcoming the formation of the new alliance. Akhilesh Yadav said that the new alliance will help in strengthening PDA (pichda, dalit and alpsangkhayak). Akhilesh Yadav said that the new alliance will fight against communal forces and damage BJP by two to three percent votes during forthcoming elections.
If the new alliance joins hands with Akhilesh Yadav who is working hard to consolidate PDA and win over upper castes to by visiting various temples, it could change the political climate for 2027 assembly polls.
The alliance of Chandrashekhar Ravan and Owaisi is stronger in Western UP then in other parts of state. Akhilesh Yadav is also looking for support in that region to consolidate PDA. (IPA Service)
