By Nitya Chakraborty
China has taken the initiative to hold a trilateral summit involving Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on the sides line of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit at Shenzhen, China on November 18 and 19. It was being talked about earlier, but the big defeat of President Trump at the hands of Democrats in November 3 midterm elections, has given an urgency to China and Russia to review their status of bilateral relations with USA in the light of the major change in the composition of the U.S. Congress.
Both China and Russia have stakes in the continuation and expansion of their bilateral relationships with the United States under Donald Trump. That is why, while the European leaders were welcoming the win of the Democrats, China was cautious in reacting to the results by just mentioning that China will continue to maintain a strategic relationship with the USA while elections are an internal affair of the country.
The Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said “China is ready to work with the U.S. to safeguard and implement the important agreements reached by the two leaders, strengthen exchanges, properly handle disagreements, expand cooperation, and build a constructive strategic relationship based on respect and equality,”
While the official position was of caution, the official media expressed their worry at the possible pressure on Donald Trump for changing the course of China-US relations. The wrath was directed at the European nations which were happy at the plight of Trump. At the APEC summit, President Xi Jinping is the host. It is expected that apart from the trilateral summit, Xi will have detailed discussions with Trump about the next course of bilateral relationship. The Chinese President will like to know whether there is a possibility of course correction in bilateral ties which some of the Democratic leaders are mentioning.
While China’s concern is mainly related to trade, investment and cooperation in AI, Russia’s concern is of more fundamental nature relating to the security of the country in the context of the current Ukraine war. President Putin has been able to establish a good wavelength with Trump and he has been able to get many of his demands conceded by the U.S. President as a part of the efforts to end Ukraine war. President Zelensky has been marginalized by Trump. There is a possibility of a summit at the behest of Trump to discuss the Ukraine issue which might be favourable to Russia, if Trump has his way.
But it is certain now, that Trump will be under tremendous pressure by the rejuvenated Democrats to take tough position against President Putin. There will be resolution in the Congress in January for the cancellation of the Russia-US energy deal which is benefitting Russia. The Democrats including the leftwing Democrats are very much anti-Russia. So President Putin has every apprehension that President Trump might be forced by the Democrats to change course in the Ukraine talks. President Putin in his bilateral talks with President Trump on the sidelines of APEC summit will try to get a guarantee that Trump will not surrender to the Democratic pressure and will stick to the course he has promised.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told newsmen on Wednesday that Democratic control of the legislative branch does not bode well for bilateral relations. The Democratic Party’s activist section has an extremely negative stance towards Russia, he said
Ryabkov emphasized that Moscow will not alter its course. “Our consistent and principled stance on the Ukraine issue is independent of political events in other countries. We will continue our work according to the directives of the President of the Russian Federation,” he added.
Significantly, The Global Times, the official English daily of the Chinese Communist Party in its November 5 issue has come out with an interesting analysis of midterm election results by mocking at the European powers who are celebrating Trump’s defeat. The GT says Europe still clings desperately to a last shred of illusion — if the White House changes its leadership, US-Europe relations can return to the way they once were.
Then the GT analyst says that this illusion is precisely Europe’s fatal weakness and the root of various predicaments it faces today. The Chinese analyst mentions how Europe suffered during Biden administration. The moot point is that Europe’s problems will remain the same, whether the White House is ruled by Democrats or Republicans. But the signal was clear. Though like Russian minister, the Chinese analyst did not say it openly, but he gave enough hint that the Democrats are not good for China-US bilateral relations.
The geopolitics as a whole is in disarray after Trump’s defeat in the midterm elections. The APEC summit may make some efforts to give some direction to the trilateral relationship between the three big powers in the coming months. (IPA Service)
