By Ashok Nilakantan Ayers
WASHINGTON: More than 39 million Americans have already voted. The Democratic candidates are campaigning on the cost of living, and US President Donald Trump is taking his fight into Republican strongholds. The early-voting surge signals intense engagement—but its political meaning remains uncertain.
As the United States enters the final stretch of the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, the campaign has become a nationwide test of President Donald Trump’s political standing, the Republican Party’s congressional strength and the Democrats’ ability to turn voter dissatisfaction into electoral gains.
The numbers are already staggering attracting attention. More than 39 million Americans had cast their ballots early by October 28, according to the University of Florida Election Lab figures reported by Axios on October 29. That compares with approximately 46 million early votes during the entire 2022 midterm election period. The latest count represents a substantial advance in participation before Election Day, although it does not establish how many people will vote overall or which party will benefit.
The contest is unfolding against a backdrop of concerns about the cost of living, the administration’s policies and the economic and foreign-policy consequences of the Iran war. Democrats are seeking to make the election a referendum on the White House; Republicans are attempting to preserve their congressional majorities and prevent the president’s legislative programme from being obstructed during the final two years of his term.
The most visible feature of the closing campaign has been the geographical contrast between the two parties’ priorities.
Trump has been travelling extensively through states that he won comfortably in the presidential elections, while also appearing in battlegrounds where Republican candidates face serious challenges. According to ABC News’ tracking published on October 27, he had made 20 campaign stops in states he had won decisively and six in battleground states since September 9. Texas, Ohio and Tennessee have featured prominently in his itinerary.
For Trump, these appearances serve two purposes: mobilising his core supporters and lending his personal political capital to candidates whose races could determine control of Congress.
The president has repeatedly urged supporters to treat the election as a contest in which his own agenda is at stake. Although his name will not appear on the ballot, the outcome could shape the remaining two years of his presidency, affecting legislation, spending, investigations and the administration’s ability to advance its priorities.
Vice-President JD Vance has also been deployed to reinforce Republican campaigns. He was scheduled to visit North Carolina on October 28 for a rally in Kinston, having already returned to the state earlier in the closing campaign. He has also campaigned in states including Alaska, where Republican Senator Dan Sullivan faces a competitive challenge.
The repeated visits to states that Republicans normally consider favourable reflect the importance of turnout and the uncertainty surrounding several races. A state can remain Republican leaning overall while individual Senate, gubernatorial or House contests become highly competitive.
The Democrats’ closing strategy is built around a different calculation: expand the electoral map, attract voters who do not normally participate in midterms and persuade independents that the administration’s record on household finances deserves scrutiny.
Former president Barack Obama has returned to the campaign trail, appearing in Georgia and Ohio to support Democratic candidates. On October 28, Obama was campaigning in Georgia alongside Senator Jon Ossoff, while Trump was in Ohio supporting Republican Senator Jon Husted and gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. The competing appearances illustrated how both parties are treating a handful of states as critical to the national contest. Former vice-president Kamala Harris has also campaigned for Democratic candidates, with recent appearances in Nevada, Mississippi and New Hampshire. Other prominent Democrats, including progressive lawmakers, are working to mobilise younger voters and voters concerned about economic pressures.
The Democrats’ message centres on affordability, the cost of everyday necessities and opposition to the administration’s handling of the Iran war. Republicans, meanwhile, are emphasising taxes, cultural issues and their opposition to what they describe as excessive government intervention. The contest is not simply between two campaign messages. It is also about which party can bring its supporters to the polls in sufficient numbers, particularly in states where congressional contests are close.
The most striking development is the number of Americans who have already voted. According to the University of Florida Election Lab figures reported by Axios, more than 39 million ballots had been cast by October 28. Approximately 20 million were cast in person and nearly 19 million by mail. The figures are provisional and change as states report additional ballots.
The early-voting total is substantial, but it is important to distinguish between a high early-voting count and a record overall turnout. The 2026 total is already approaching the entire early-vote count from 2022, with several days still remaining. Yet voters who cast their ballots early might otherwise have voted on November 3. The increase does not necessarily represent an equivalent increase in the total number of people who will vote.
There are nevertheless indications of heightened Democratic engagement in some important states. An ABC News analysis published on October 28 found that less-frequent voters in Texas and Georgia were participating at higher rates than at comparable points in the 2022 midterm cycle, with Democrats attracting a greater share of this group.
This matters because less-frequent voters can alter the composition of the electorate. However, early-voting statistics are not a direct count of votes for either party. In states that disclose party registration, registration identifies a voter’s declared affiliation, not the candidate for whom that person voted.
The 2026 election involves a vast electorate. A September estimate by the Pew Research Centre put the number of eligible voters at approximately 249.75 million American citizens aged 18 and above living in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The estimate excludes certain groups, including eligible Americans living abroad, and is not the same as the number registered or expected to vote.
For comparison, the US Election Assistance Commission reported 234.5 million registered voters in the 2024 general election, including active and inactive registrations. That historical registration figure should not be mistaken for a verified 2026 registration count. The United States has no single, continuously updated national voter-registration roll that supplies a definitive current figure for every state.
The congressional stakes are equally clear: House of Representatives: all 435 voting seats are being contested, Senate: 35 seats are on the ballot, including regular elections and special elections, Governorships: voters in 36 states are choosing governors. These contests will determine the political balance of Congress and influence state-level policy for the next two years.
The early-voting surge is unusual, but the historical comparison requires care. The 2018 midterms produced turnout of approximately 48.1% of the voting-eligible population in House elections, according to Pew Research Centre’s analysis of official returns. In 2022, the comparable figure declined to about 45.1%, although turnout among citizens of voting age was higher under the Census Bureau’s separate methodology. These differences illustrate why the population used to calculate turnout must always be specified.
The 2020 presidential election recorded substantially higher participation than a typical midterm, as presidential contests generally attract a broader electorate. Early and mail voting also became much more prominent during the pandemic and have remained important since then. In 2022, approximately 47.1% of voters reported voting early, by mail or through a combination of those methods, according to the Census Bureau. That was lower than the extraordinary 2020 level but higher than in 2018.
There is no single meaningful national average that divides all Americans into those who vote on Election Day and those who vote early. States have different rules, voting periods and reporting practices. Moreover, the number of early votes is a count of ballots, while turnout percentages are calculated against a defined eligible or registered population.
Consequently, November 2026 cannot yet be described as a record-breaking election in overall turnout. The early-voting count is approaching the 2022 full-period total, but the final participation rate will not be known until after Election Day and the completion of official returns. The closing days will test whether Democratic enthusiasm translates into enough votes in competitive districts and states, and whether Republicans can mobilise the coalition that supported Trump in 2024.
For Trump and Vance, the campaign is about defending congressional majorities and demonstrating that the president retains the capacity to bring supporters to the polls even when economic concerns and disapproval of his policies complicate the political environment.
For Democrats, the challenge is to turn dissatisfaction into votes, defend vulnerable incumbents and make gains beyond their traditional strongholds. Obama’s return to campaigning adds national visibility, while candidates are also trying to connect the election to local concerns about prices, jobs, healthcare and public services. The early-voting figures offer evidence of intense participation and potentially shifting engagement among important voter groups. They do not, on their own, establish the final outcome.
On November 3, the decisive evidence will come from ballots counted across 435 House districts and the 35 Senate contests. The result will shape not only the balance of power in Washington but also the political constraints under which Trump governs for the remainder of his term.
For a president whose name is not on the ballot, the midterms are nevertheless a consequential measure of his administration’s political reach. For the Democrats, they are an opportunity to demonstrate whether their campaign message can convert voter concern into congressional representation. The early vote has raised the stakes; the final count will supply the answer. (IPA Service)
