By Rabindra Nath Sinha
KOLKATA: The question uppermost in Manipur political circles at this point of time is whether the north-eastern state will have elections for the 60-member Assembly, which are due under normal circumstances between late February and mid-March 2027; that is broadly four months hence. Political parties and civil society organizations (CSOs) remain perturbed over the ground realities as Kuki-Naga tribe relations are at all-time low because of serious incidents of violence leading to deaths on both sides.
Despite the well-meaning chief minister Yumnam Khemchand Singh’s efforts to bridge the Naga-Kuki divide, restoration of normalcy in Manipur remains a tough job for the host of security agencies, which are acting individually and collectively in terms of the strategy determined at the highest level, which invariably involves the Union home ministry and the state administration.
Union home minister Amit Shah had assured the chief minister when the latter met him in New Delhi early this month that he would visit the state in the latter part of this month. It remains to be seen whether Shah keeps his word; if he does, that will mark his visit to the strife-scarred state after more than 30 months; for he had last visited Manipur on April 15, 2024, days before the two-phase Lok Sabha elections on April 19 and 26. If his visit does not materialise despite an assurance to do so, it will be a pointer to Shah’s priority for the hapless state.
New Delhi and Shah, despite his ‘strong man image’ have been forced in recent times to backtrack on the crucial issue of census. Bowing to the persistent demands of the people, in general and the Meiteis, Pangals (Meitei muslims) and the Nagas, in particular, the Centre decided to defer the census operations. The announcement was made by the chief minister’s office on August 31. Those opposed to the census firmly demanded that before the census exercise, the National Register of Citizens (NRC) should be updated.
New Delhi found itself cornered because the Manipur High Court also ordered that the census exercise, which was to start on September 1, should remain deferred until further orders. The order followed hearing of two separate petitions by a two-judge special bench, which included chief justice M Sundar and Justice A Guneswar Sharma. The petitioners were Kangleipak Students’ Association and convener of 14 CSOs Shanta Nahakpam. The petitioners sought directions to update the NRC using 1951 as the base year to address their concerns over illegal migration from Myanmar before carrying out census.
It is to be noted that the state government acted pretty fast on the High Court order; state home minister Konthouam Govindas informed the Assembly on September 7 that the state government would use 1951 as the base year for preparing the NRC and that steps had been initiated to obtain the Centre’s approval and trace the original physical records of the 1951 exercise. Govindas also informed the Assembly that in terms of a resolution adopted by the House on August 5, 2022, the Manipur State Population Commission had since been set up. How smoothly the state government will be able to conduct the NRC job will be clear in the coming days. Doubts arise because the umbrella outfit, Kuki-Zo Council (KZC,) has already registered its protest and it wants the census to be conducted. According to KZC, the demand for NRC with 1951 as the base year is “politically motivated” and the intention of the NRC proponents is “to obstruct the census”.
Another ticklish issue for New Delhi is the Suspension of Operations (SoO) pact with the Kuki-Zo insurgent groups. Despite the opposition from the Meitei and Naga CSOs, who are firm on their demand for abrogation of the pact, the Union ministry, the Manipur government and the Kuki-Zo groups signed the SoO pact on September 4, 2025 for one year “on re-negotiated terms and conditions or ground rules”. A fresh extension was thus due on September 4, 2026.
In practical terms, SoO 2025 marked revival of the pact because in the serious law and problems the state had to contend with after ethnic violence broke on May3, 2023 the Manipur administration in February 2024 opted out of the pact in force since 2008. In what is seen in political quarters as “an attempted balancing act” amid continuing violence between the Naga and Kuki groups, the Union government has kept the pact in abeyance till all weapons are surrendered by the Kuki-Zo groups.
Apart from keeping the pact in abeyance, the Centre has fortified the security cover with additional deployment of 30 more companies of CRPF (around 3,000 personnel) and two battalions of CoBRA (close to 2,000 personnel). Moreover the home ministry’s advisor for north-east and interlocutor for peace talks Ajit Lal has not scheduled talks with the SoO groups in the past several months. Lal’s last interaction was on April 30 The Kuki-Zo groups are optimistic about extension.
Meanwhile, the Congress is slowly stepping up its activity in the state. In an unusually aggressive posture, two Congress leaders – Mahila Congress president Alka Lamba and party MP and Manipur minder Saptagiri Ulaka – on October 25 demanded chief minister’s resignation, dissolution of the Assembly and holding of fresh elections. The two leaders, who in recent weeks have visited the state, spoke of the series of violent incidents resulting in deaths of a good number of innocent people. Security personnel are highhanded and their only aim is to suppress protests. Women affected by the ethnic conflict and Naga-Kuki violence for the past several months continued to face hardships, they have pointed out. (IPA Service)
