MUMBAI: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that India and the United States were “very, very close” to concluding a drawn-out trade agreement, with only a small number of issues left to resolve. The statement raised hopes of an early breakthrough as a temporary waiver of punitive tariffs linked to India’s Russian oil purchases improved the negotiating climate.
“We’re about as close as you can be without an executed agreement. I think there’s a small number of items left to wrap up, so I think that (the deal) will happen shortly,” Rubio said during a press interaction in Mumbai. “We are very optimistic that we will have something in place here very soon,” he iterated.
Rubio, who is visiting India for discussions on trade, energy, defence, critical technologies and strategic cooperation, said the US State Department does not negotiate the trade agreements but is closely involved in the process from a national security perspective.
He met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar during the day and also discussed regional and global issues, including developments in West Asia. According to a statement by the State Department, Rubio also commended recent progress in bilateral defense and civil nuclear cooperation, and advocated for the increased purchase of US technologies and systems, which can enhance the security and prosperity of both our countries.
No official statement regarding the Rubio-Jaishankar meeting was issued by the Indian side until press time.
The upbeat assessment by Rubio comes days after President Donald Trump waived the immediate threat of punitive tariffs of up to 100% on countries buying Russian oil, easing one of the biggest sources of uncertainty surrounding the negotiations. The relief, however, is temporary. The executive order signed by President Trump provides a 60-day pause to secondary sanctions against key buyers of Russian crude such as India and China while Washington assesses energy market stability.
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said last week that the first tranche of the bilateral trade agreement had been finalised and was undergoing legal drafting. He said the agreement would be operationalised once India secured a comparable or competitive advantage over rival exporters in the US market.
Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal has also said negotiations are moving in the right direction and that the two sides hope to conclude and sign the agreement at the earliest. He stressed that India needs preferential market access and greater tariff stability, while the broader US tariff framework is still being formalised.
Other tariff-related risks also remain. The US has imposed an additional 10% duty on Indian imports under Section 301 following its investigation into the enforcement of prohibitions on goods produced using forced labour. Separately, the Office of the US Trade Representative is investigating India and several other economies over alleged structural excess capacity and production in manufacturing sectors.
The outcome of the excess-capacity investigation could have implications for the final tariff framework and the competitive position of Indian exporters. Agrawal has indicated that the broader US tariff structure, including developments arising from Section 301 proceedings, will need to be taken into account before the agreement is signed.
The two governments have been negotiating a bilateral trade agreement since early 2025, with tariffs and market access among the principal sticking points. The first tranche, whose framework was agreed to in February, is intended to provide an initial framework for improving market access and reducing trade friction, while leaving scope for further negotiations.
Under the trade deal, Washiton wants India to lower tariffs across the board, give it wider access to the country’s s agricultural and industrial markets, remove non-tariff barriers and step up purchases of American goods such as energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts, precious metals, technology products etc. The US was India’s largest trading partner till FY25, with bilateral merchandise trade reaching $132.14 billion, comprising $86.51 billion in exports and $45.63 billion in imports. However, China overtook the US in FY26, with total merchandise trade of $151.1 billion, and New Delhi’s trade deficit with Beijing of $112 billion. India has a services trade surplus with the US. In recent years, India has increased the import of energy, including LNG and LPG, and defence goods from the US.
India has taken a stand that a trade deal with the US must give Indian goods a tariff edge over main competitors.
Source: The Financial Express
