By Arun Srivastava
BJP’s second in command, Amit Shah has been aggressively deploying tactical counters and localized statecraft to retrieve his long-standing “Chanakya” reputation following recent legislative and coalition challenges. While political shifts after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections forced a more collaborative alliance approach, his October 13 observation that the Congress party will face a “crushing defeat” in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections instead of being seen as a simple political counter-narrative ought to be perceived as admission of a new hidden plan or design to manipulate the 2029 Lok Sabha election.
Notwithstanding resorting to all kind of manipulative machinations, Modi-Shah duo in 2024 could not accomplish its mission of “abki bar char sau par” (this time more than 400 hundred), winning more than 400 seats. This time also Shah is trying to create electoral hype. His official stance is that opposition allegations regarding the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) are an excuse to mask their own electoral failures, asserting that the NDA is positioned to secure a landslide victory in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, precisely more than 350 seats.
The reason what made Shah to come out this narrative at least two years ahead of the general election, ought to be analysed in proper perspective. Though he is not so naïve to unravel his plot at this stage, it cannot be ruled out that he has been resorting to this tactics for diverting the attention of INDIA bloc from the current agitation and exposing the real character and content of SIR. But it is too early to engage the opposition in any counter aggression and electoral preparation.
True enough Shah’s statement underlines that a cornered Modi fighting a lost battle at least for protecting him from public humiliation and disgrace. The political exchange between Shah and the Congress-led opposition highlights two starkly contrasting interpretations of India’s political reality. This comment was made amidst intense political standard-bearing over the ongoing SIR of electoral rolls and protests calling for the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. Shah’s aggressive 2029 projection is not the reflection of genuine confidence, but is a calculated political tactic to hide vulnerabilities and protect the image of Modi.
INDIA bloc has already launched major protests and marched to the Supreme Court, accusing the government of manipulating the SIR process to cause mass deletions of voters. Congress MP Jairam Ramesh called Shah the “co-architect of vote-chori” (vote theft). In this view, predicting a 2029 landslide is an attempt to shift the media narrative away from serious questions regarding the neutrality of the Election Commission. One thing bought to be taken serious note of; Shah has come out with this observation only after Rahul and INDIA leaders marched to Supreme Court and filed a petition at the directive of CJI Surya Kant.
Amit Shah’s observation is more like projecting strength amid insecurity. There is no denying that BJP and Modi are “rattled” by the rising public and political sentiment against them. By forcefully declaring a future victory years in advance, Amit Shah seeks to maintain an aura of political invincibility, signalling to allies, more precisely the corporate backers, and voters that Modi’s leadership remains unassailable despite a shifting political landscape. Opposition and people view Shah’s pushback as a preemptive defence mechanism to assure that Modi is not fighting a losing battle.
Amit Shah dismissed the opposition’s ongoing anti-CEC and anti-SIR agitations as “negative politics” and “fabricated media events,” going as far as to accuse Rahul Gandhi of trying to get undocumented infiltrators registered as voters. The unfolding political discourse between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition INDIA bloc involves a multi-layered debate over institutional transparency, past state election strategies, and future national projections. There is no doubt that SIR exercise has been weaponized to systematically delete legitimate opposition votes, who were perceived to be supporters of INDIA bloc.
Amit has the reputation of managing elections and a look at the functioning the i duo would unravel that their main focus has been winning elections than on the performance of the government and fulfilling the economic priorities and needs of the poor people. During his formative years handling the party’s national machinery, the BJP broke historical droughts to establish major footholds—forming governments in states like Maharashtra and Haryana. Observers often look at these past assembly triumphs as templates for booth-level micro-management. Shah recently reiterated this focus in state-level organizational meetings, instructing workers to focus heavily on increasing turnout by 10% in favourable booths while directly converting opposition-leaning polling stations.
Shah has already signalled that the BJP’s future strategy involves aiming for robust, solo-majority projections (with supporters floating targets of 350+ seats for the party alone). The NDA continues to emphasize long-term legislative goals as part of its future vision, including the prospective implementation of the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) and “One Nation One Election”. Shah’s signature “Chanakya-style” micro-management was heavily credited with breaking regional barriers in several 2026 assembly elections, capturing critical gains in difficult terrains such as West Bengal and Assam. His recent victories in Gujarat’s local body elections and state by polls have been utilized to demonstrate that the BJP’s organizational machine remains highly potent.
In the existing political backdrop the opposition would have to be more agile and alert. It cannot take the victory granted. This impression is created by the easy going attitude of some major constituents of INDIA bloc. If they do not keep track of Shah’s activities, it is certain that they will lose the 2029 general election too. It is crystal clear that Modi and Shah will resort to every trick that is in their magic box to win the election. Winning the 2029 Lok Sabha election is a question of life and death for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) to survive and expand.
The different perspectives on the relationship between the 2029 election and the RSS break down into distinct strategic arguments: Ideological Consolidation; A defeat in 2029 could stall the legislative implementation of the broader Hindutva agenda; Institutional Leverage: A loss of state power could lead to an opposition coalition dismantling elements of this ecosystem or cutting off institutional access and finally Generational Shift and “Gen Z” Outreach: The RSS and BJP are undergoing massive internal resets to target over 38 crore young voters (Gen Z) ahead of 2029. Observers note that failing to capture this demographic politically could restrict the organization’s long-term expansion among the youth.
It is an open secret that RSS grew and expanded with high velocity after BJP government came to power in Delhi in 2014. This has not happened since its formation in 1925. For its centenary and beyond, the RSS has set targets to expand into 30 crore Hindu households and deepen engagement across marginalized communities, irrespective of immediate political outcomes. In the background of these long-term survival debates, both organizations are actively preparing for the electoral road ahead.
It is an open secret that saffron ecosystem and its administration utilizes state machinery, law enforcement agencies, and institutional influence to disadvantage political opponents and secure electoral victories. Opponents often raise concerns regarding political polarization, media bias, and the fairness of the electoral process, suggesting that the drive to retain power could lead to manipulative legislative or political tactics. Shah’s observation is part of his psychological war fare against INDIA bloc especially Rahul Gandhi.
Mark what he has to say: Congress has consistently lost elections ever since he assumed a key role. The SIR only came into effect after 2024. Ever since you emerged as the principal leader of the Congress—and subsequently as its President and the Leader of the Opposition—the party has consistently lost elections. I want to tell Shri Rahul ji and his associates to prepare themselves once again for a crushing defeat in 2029. In the 2029 general elections, the NDA is going to win with a resounding majority, and the Congress is going to face defeat for the fourth consecutive time.” (IPA Service)
