By Gyan Pathak
The BJP finds itself under a great duress in the sixth phase of Lok Sabha Election 2019. The five rounds of voting held in 425 constituencies so far, presents a political whirlpool that may suck the BJP and the NDA under its leadership. Saving the NDA from drowning has become a daunting task for Modi-Shah duo in the next two phases of election. Though the BJP seems to have emerged as the largest political party with a prospect of winning 132 seats, the gap from majority of 272 seats is too wide to be bridged in the next phases.
So is the case with NDA which is most likely to win 167 seats only. Only consolation left for them is that their arch rival INC is far behind with a prospect of winning only 108 seats and the UPA only 145. The non-NDA non-UPA parties may get 113 seats, between UPA and regional parties. The situation has already triggered efforts for post poll alliances.
The 59 seats spread of seven states going to vote in the sixth phase on May 12 has thus become crucial not only for the BJP but also for the INC and their alliances, and non-NDA and non-UPA regional parties and alliances. The BJP has great stakes in Bihar, Jharkhand, Delhi, and Madhya Pradesh where it holds all the constituencies presently which are going to vote. Seven of the 10 seats in Haryana and 12 seats in Uttar Pradesh are held by the party. It means barring West Bengal, and a couple of seats in Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, all seats are held by the BJP. The party has pinned its hope on its considerable vote-bank and the alliance partners.
NDA’s efforts seemed to have generated a favourable response from the people in the beginning in all the eight constituencies out of 40 in Bihar. However, as the election campaign drew closer to the polling date, it has been noticed that it was just an illusion. The BJP can be sure of winning only two seats – Purvi Champaran and Sheohar. NDA partner LJP is most likely to lose Vaishali, which may go to RJD. JD(U) is most likely to win Gopalganj where RJD is in contest. RJD has clearly an upper hand in Maharjganj in comparison to the BJP candidate and is most likely to win. Siwan is witnessing a very close contest between RJD and JD(U). Valmiki Nagar seat is being contested by JD(U) where INC candidate is giving a tough fight. RLSP candidate in Paschim Champaran has made the BJP candidates win difficult.
National Capital Territory of Delhi is being watched by the whole country with much interest. All the seven seats here are presently held by the BJP where it has been caught in triangular fights with AAP and the INC. AAP has considerable vote bank in all the constituencies and has the credit of defeating all the political parties from all but three out of 70 seats in Vidhan Sabha. INC has also a considerable support base. Chandni Chowk and North East Delhi constituencies are witnessing close fights between the BJP and INC.
In a triangular fight in East Delhi, AAP seems to be stronger. INC and BJP are in close contest in New Delhi. BJP is in very difficult position in North West Delhi and South Delhi seats which it had won by a small margin of 7.93 and 9.74 per cent in 2014 when there was Modi wave in the country. West Delhi seat is most likely to be won by BJP. The Election campaign in Delhi has been moving in uncertain direction revealing the fact that winning all seats in Delhi this time will not be possible for the BJP. Rather, these are likely to be shared by all the three major contesting parties – the BJP, the AAP, and the INC.
BJP has placed a great hope in Haryana to win all the 10 seats of the state. However, they are mistaken. The party is comfortable in only four seats – Ambala, Faridabad, Gurgaon, and Karnal. INC is not only going to retain its Rohtak seat but also likely to wrest Sirsa from INLD. INLD is also in trouble in Hisar. INC is giving tough fight to BJP in Bhiwani-Mahendragarh, Kurukshetra, and Sonipat. It seems to be very difficult for the BJP to even maintain its tally of seven seats they had won in the last Lok Sabha election.
In Jharkhand too, the BJP is finding it difficult to retain all the four seats going to poll. The party can be sure to win only Dhanbad seat. Most vulnerable seat for the party in this phase of election is Giridih which it had won by a small margin of only 4.18 per cent last time. NDA ally AJSU party is contesting from this seat. UPA ally JMM seems to be better placed though there is a close contest between the two. JMM is giving sleepless nights to BJP candidate in Jamshedpur. INC candidate in Singhbhum is also giving tough fight to sitting BJP MP.
Out of eight seats going to poll in Madhya Pradesh, only one – Guna – is presently held by INC which it is most likely to retain. The seven other seats are presently held by the BJP, out of which only one seat – Gwalior – they are likely to lose to INC. BJP had won this seat by a small margin of only 3.01 per cent in the last general election. BJP seems to be comfortable in four seats – Morena, Bhind, Vidisha, and Rajgarh. There is a tough fight in Bhopal and Sagar constituencies between the two.
Uttar Pradesh has become the toughest for the BJP where 14 constituencies are going to poll. Only Azamgarh seat is presently held by SP which it is most likely to win again. The rest 13 seats are presently held by NDA (BJP-12 and AD-1). BJP is most likely to lose Allahabad, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagra, Shrawasti, and Lalganj to SP-BSP alliance, but most likely to win Phulpur, Machhlishahr, and Bhadohi. There are close contests in Ambedkar Nagar, Domariyaganj. Electoral battle in Jaunpur, Sultanpur and Pratapgarh has also lately become difficult for BJP, though they have still an upper hand in these constituencies.
All the eight seats going to poll in West Bengal are presently held by AITC. The party is most likely to retain Tamluk, Kanthi, Ghatal, Jhargram, Medinipur and Purulia. The party is in close contests with the BJP and the Left Front in Bankura and Bishnupur, though it has still an upper hand. (IPA Service)